Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Tomorrow

Probability of severe weather 

A moderate risk of severe weather has been issued for Wisconsin. As of now, it appears that the main cause of severe weather is to be wind damage, with this quote from the SPC's outlook:

...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH A 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ERN KS INTO SRN WI BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SD/NEB INTO SRN MN...WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN
IA AND INTO ERN TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AS FAR N AS NRN WI. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH AND INTENSE WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.
FARTHER S ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LINES OF STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...MAINLY FROM TX INTO AR.

This will be the same piece of energy currently making for a potentially deadly tornado outbreak today, so this should be closely watched.

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #166

A Particularly Dangerous Situation, or PDS, Tornado Watch has been issued for southeast Nebraska.
This watch is valid until 7:00 PM CDT.

Strong thunderstorms are developing in the watch area amidst shear and instability.

I am very concerned about this watch, with a 'High' probability of strong tornadoes (EF 2+).

Andrew

11:30 AM CDT SPC Outlook Update

Overall severe weather threat

Risk of tornado within 25 miles of any point

In the most recent Storm Prediction Center outlook update, the 45% tornado risk area was pulled south, indicating a shift towards more tornadoes in Kansas.

This remains as dangerous a situation as ever, and I ask all of you to stay vigilant throughout the night.

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Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #165

A Particularly Dangerous Situation, or PDS, tornado watch has been issued for north Oklahoma and central Kansas.

Probabilities in the above graphic indicate a 'High' likelihood of tornadoes, even a high likelihood of EF2+ tornadoes. Thunderstorms are erupting in central Kansas. With instability and rotation in place, expect these storms to go supercellular, if they are not already.

This watch expires at 6:00 PM CDT.

Repeat: This is a PDS Tornado Watch, meaning that these storms may threaten life and property. Plan accordingly.

Mesoscale Discussion #521

A mesoscale discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center over North Texas, the Oklahoma panhandle, and southwest Kansas as towering cumulus clouds appear to be signaling the start of today's convection.
With the dryline only a little ways away from this mesoscale discussion, and dew points/instability rapidly rising in and to the east of this discussion, any convection that does start up will quickly become strong/severe and may have some rotation as a jet streak progresses eastward.

Andrew