Apology Concerning the Recent Solar Flare

I owe everyone an apology for the coverage of the recent X-class flare and coronal mass ejection poised to hit Earth. I am not familiar with the deep-down work concerning how the sun works. The posts I have issued came from a frantic rush to find links with images and models, and, looking back, that is not the way to provide a forecast to those who genuinely care and trust forecasts that I issue.
That said, from this point on, I will be staying within the realm of knowledge I already have, and leave things I am not too familiar with to the government. I hope to never have an incident like this again. As time passes, I will continue to learn and make connections, but until then, I'm sticking to the stuff I know.

Andrew

Hurricane Fabio Spins in East Pacific

Hurricane Fabio is currently spinning around in the East Pacific at Category 1 strength, with maximum winds of 90 MPH and a central pressure reading of 982 millibars.

Satellite imagery of Fabio shows a formidable core but no present eye, with the main convection placed on the eastern side of the system. One can see a wrapping motion becoming apparent on the western portion of the hurricane, and this is likely a sign of strengthening. Should this wrapping motion continue, I would expect a tightening of the southwestern convection, as well as an expansion of the strongest storms from the eastern side of the hurricane into the western flank in accordance with the tightening of the core.

Fabio is expected to curve northwest before attempting to move north, as shown on the National Hurricane Center's track above. Stay up to date with the latest coverage on Fabio here, on The Weather Centre.

Andrew

Friday the 13th Weather Forecast

The forecast for today's Friday the 13th includes very wet conditions across much of the Southeast this afternoon and early evening, as a disturbance and frontal system meander across the region. Temperatures will hod back into the 90s and 80s in the lowlands, with 70s in higher elevations.
The Midwest also has a shot at some precipitation, which could cool off the 90s expected for today across that portion of the country.
The Plains will be baking in 100 degree weather with very little precipitation in sight for much of the region.
The Western half of the country looks to be getting in on some wet weather while temperatures vary from 70s in the mountains to 100s in Phoenix, AZ.

Andrew

Solar Flare Sends Coronal Mass Ejection At Earth

In the last 48 hours, a strong solar flare, an X Class flare to be exact, was observed on the sun from sunspot region 1520. The image above shows 1520 as a very bring spot, indicating just how active it is at this time. Over the last 12-24 hours, it has weakened, but nonetheless remains very noticeable on the sun.

This X-Class flare did produce a coronal mass ejection, or CME. A CME involves particles from the sun being hurled out into space. Sometimes these particles are directed at Earth. When they do hit Earth, radio disruptions, GPS problems, and devices associated with radio or satellite communication can be disrupted.

The Space Weather Prediction Center, a branch of the NOAA, is predicting that the CME associated with this flare will strike Earth at roughly 8:00 AM CDT on Saturday, July 14.

Andrew

60% of Nation In an Official Drought

Sixty percent of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) is now under an official drought, characterized by D1-D4 conditions or worse. Another 20% of the nation is approaching drought conditions. That 20% is shown in yellow.

We are in the worst drought in recorded history since the Drought Monitor has been working (12 years). I, for one, can confirm that my lawn is either an unhealthy dark green or brown. So, is there any relief in sight?

Total precipitation off the 12z GFS. I apologize for how much of an eyesore it is.

The total precipitation counts off the 12z GFS until hour 384 show good rains heading for the Southeast and Gulf Coast in a good show of an El Nino pattern. However, there looks to be something of a continued lack of good precipitation over the Great Lakes and Midwest, where only a couple inches at most are anticipated.

Total Precipitation off the 0z FIM

Total precipitation values off the 0z FIM earlier today indicate a similar situation to the GFS is being shown, with heavy precipitation in the Southeast, but fairly little precipitation in the Midwest and Great Lakes.

All in all, the models seem to like the idea of a wet Southeast and dry Midwest, which could spell disaster for countless crops already suffering in that area.

Andrew