December 20-22 Potential Blizzard Event (Updated 12/15)

(Originally posted earlier today) I have upgraded my thinking of this winter event from a 'Significant Storm' to a 'Blizzard' event. I'll now explain why.

This is the ECMWF forecast for Hour 144, a.k.a. the evening of December 20th. We see a very strong storm system in northeast Illinois at this time with a minimum central pressure of 986 millibars- pretty strong for an onshore system. Let me first start off discussion of the model by saying I trust the ECMWF more than other models at the moment, as although all models have been having troubles, the ECMWF has historically outperformed most models in the past. The ECMWF shows a high pressure system in the Southeast, off to the east of Florida.

Moving quickly along, we now visit the ECMWF Ensemble prediction system, or the ECMWF EPS. This forecast is for the same timeframe as above- the evening of December 20th. We see our storm system is on the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border, with a central minimum pressure of 998 millibars. Considering the ECMWF EPS is composed of 51 separate forecasts, and we are 144 hours away, the strength of this system that is being projected is astounding. It's not that common to see an average of 51 forecasts, 6 days out projecting such a strong storm system. The ECMWF EPS believes the system will be submerged in cold air, as shown in 850mb temperatures (colors). This, combined with tightening of isobars, makes me believe that a blizzard-like solution could evolve in the Upper Midwest and South Canada into Michigan.

The GFS model has not been mentioned, but for those wondering, it is similar to the ECMWF EPS solution above as far as placement of the system goes.

Going back to the ECMWF model, we can see that it is projecting very heavy snow to fall over some Midwestern states. Snow is shown as precipitation north of the dark blue 32 degree line:

ECMWF Precip/Temp forecast for the Morning of Dec. 20

ECMWF Precip/Temp forecast for the evening of Dec. 20

ECMWF Precip/Temp forecast for the morning of Dec. 21

I don't have access to snow depth forecasts from the ECMWF, but if I were to give a rough estimate of snow amounts from the above few images, I would predict the following accumulations for the following locations:

-Northeast IL: 6 inches+
-South WI: 5-8 inches
-Michigan: 5-8 inches+


(Begin updated data) Now, I bring to you the updated 12z model suite and some information you'll find pretty darn interesting.

The ECMWF Ensembles are farther south than their 0z counterparts this morning, as shown in the below images:

As I explained, to have the ensemble system so confident on such a strong storm system this far out is very encouraging to those wanting snow. Now, in this scenario, Wisconsin, Iowa and maybe north Illinois would get the heaviest snow before the system moves off to the east. When that happens, we see a massive cold air dump from the heart of Canada into the Northeast. If this happens, heavy lake effect snow is likely. Not possible, LIKELY. This would be air that doesn't force you to wear a heavy jacket, it chills you to the bone- and then some. The warm Great Lakes will take this and, if such a solution happens, vigorously expel potentially high amounts of lake effect snow. The fact that this is the ECMWF EPS showing this happening is great news for the states I mentioned above for snowfall, because when you have the ECMWF Ensembles on your side, you're looking pretty good as far as probability of a forecast happening goes.

Now onto the interesting part. As I previously stated, the ECMWF is my trusted model at the moment. I will show you why I trust it's 0z solution just below:

These are North America model track errors. Basically, the higher the model is on this chart, the worse it has verified. If we look in the long range, we see there is one blue line that actually goes down in the long range, meaning it gets more accurate as time goes on (not a common sight at all). This blue line is none other than the ECMWF model. The Hour 120 forecast (just about when this storm gets going) is looking very well according to this chart above- all the more reason to trust the ECMWF. If you're looking for the GFS, it's that red line that is too high up to see at hour 96. (For those of you wondering about the 12z models, the GFS is about the same as the red line above, and the ECMWF has not come in yet.)

Forecast Preference: 12z ECMWF EPS / 0z ECMWF
Confidence: 45%

I'll have my first call out tomorrow morning. Until then, updates on this system may be found on the Facebook page at www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentre

Andrew

December 20-22 Potential Blizzard Event

See the updated version HERE

I have upgraded my thinking of this winter event from a 'Significant Storm' to a 'Blizzard' event. I'll now explain why.

This is the ECMWF forecast for Hour 144, a.k.a. the evening of December 20th. We see a very strong storm system in northeast Illinois at this time with a minimum central pressure of 986 millibars- pretty strong for an onshore system. Let me first start off discussion of the model by saying I trust the ECMWF more than other models at the moment, as although all models have been having troubles, the ECMWF has historically outperformed most models in the past. The ECMWF shows a high pressure system in the Southeast, off to the east of Florida.

Moving quickly along, we now visit the ECMWF Ensemble prediction system, or the ECMWF EPS. This forecast is for the same timeframe as above- the evening of December 20th. We see our storm system is on the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border, with a central minimum pressure of 998 millibars. Considering the ECMWF EPS is composed of 51 separate forecasts, and we are 144 hours away, the strength of this system that is being projected is astounding. It's not that common to see an average of 51 forecasts, 6 days out projecting such a strong storm system. The ECMWF EPS believes the system will be submerged in cold air, as shown in 850mb temperatures (colors). This, combined with tightening of isobars, makes me believe that a blizzard-like solution could evolve in the Upper Midwest and South Canada into Michigan.

The GFS model has not been mentioned, but for those wondering, it is similar to the ECMWF EPS solution above as far as placement of the system goes.

Going back to the ECMWF model, we can see that it is projecting very heavy snow to fall over some Midwestern states. Snow is shown as precipitation north of the dark blue 32 degree line:

ECMWF Precip/Temp forecast for the Morning of Dec. 20

ECMWF Precip/Temp forecast for the evening of Dec. 20

ECMWF Precip/Temp forecast for the morning of Dec. 21

I don't have access to snow depth forecasts from the ECMWF, but if I were to give a rough estimate of snow amounts from the above few images, I would predict the following accumulations for the following locations:

-Northeast IL: 6 inches+
-South WI: 5-8 inches
-Michigan: 5-8 inches+

Forecast Preference: ECMWF
Confidence: 55%

Andrew

Are We Living In A Computer Simulation?

Recently, the idea that the universe as we know it is a computer simulation has emerged. What do you mean 'computer simulation', you ask? Well, let's see what philosopher Nick Bostrom says on this topic.

In 2003, Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom proposed the idea that the world we live in, and indeed we ourselves, may be a computer simulation run by people in the far, far future. Now, a team of physicists from the University of Washington report that they may have a way to test that idea.
Bostrom's 'Simulation Hypothesis" proposes that one of the three following possibilities is true:
1) The human race will go extinct before it ever reaches a "post-human" stage of evolution that possesses a technological level capable of running complex computer simulations of our universe (what he calls "ancestor simulations"),
2) The human race evolves to a "post-human" level and is capable of running ancestor simulations, but does not do so — possibly due to the energy requirements needed, or perhaps due to ethical concerns about simulating self-aware beings,
3) We (in the here and now) are most certainly living in a computer simulation.
Furthermore (and this is where it gets a bit 'trippy'), unless we are currently living in a computer simulation, it is highly unlikely that the human race will evolve to a post-human level that runs ancestor simulations. (text from Yahoo! Voices)

Basically, Bostrom believes that one of three things is true in life as we know it: Humans go extinct before we reach a stage of intelligence where we can simulate the universe (called the post-human stage), humans evolve to this post-human stage, but, for ethical reasons and the like, we choose not to run these simulation. The final (and most intriguing possibility) is that we do live in a computer simulation.

Researchers from the University of Washington believe they can find out whether such an idea is true. By using computers of immense power (called lattice quantum chromodynamics, or QCD), the researchers could find out if our world could be simulated. The basic idea of QCD computing is that one starts with the very basic physics components that exist today. Now, all computers have limitations. For this particular computer scenario, researchers are forced to use a cube-shaped grid to make simulations on these computers. So, by using the basic components of physics laid out on a cube-shaped grid, researchers could run a simulation. If the simulation from the researchers prints out a situation similar to ours (we don't know just what that could be, but in physics, the possibilities are endless), then we've just found evidence that everything we know is being controlled by more advanced life forms, and we're in a computer simulation somewhat like The Sims.

If such evidence exists that we are actually in a computer simulation, what do we do next? Well, the logical thing to do would be to attempt to make contact with these advanced life forms, which would be fairly difficult. Because we would be a simulation and our 'creators' would be more advanced, the technology we are using could be far outdated and thus unknown (a.k.a. forgotten, like the Spanish Conquistador's mediocre guns) to the advanced lifeforms. The awkward-ness then arises- we are essentially under the control of our creators. We start to wonder, should we notify our potential creators that we are now essentially self-aware? Much like The Sims, our creators could have the power to obliterate us in a flash. But that hasn't happened in the last several million years, so I don't believe it will happen soon.

That's what could happen if evidence is found we are in a computer simulation. There is no way of knowing if we are in a simulation, and the chances of ever finding out we are 100% sure that we are in a computer simulation is next to nothing.

It's pretty difficult to even comprehend what living in a computer simulation could mean for us, but it's one of the exciting things facing our world today.

Andrew

Special Long Range Lookout: Much More Favorable Pattern Developing

**This post is dedicated to those who lost their lives in the tragic massacre in Connecticut. All information below is typed and published in honor of the children and teachers killed in this horrible event.**

The European ECMWF model (left) and American GFS model (right) have come into good agreement on a much more favorable pattern for the nation for the last part of December.

The image above is composed of these two models' 8-10 day 500mb height anomaly forecasts. In areas of blue, a stormier pattern is likely to develop. Oranges and reds indicate a warmer and quieter pattern should develop. This is the pattern in the few days before Christmas.

The ECMWF model on the left shows a strong west-based negative NAO developing in the near future. If we have a negative NAO, the tendency for storms and cold weather to hit New England is increased. In a west-based negative NAO, a specific enhancement is placed on these two categories for the general East Coast. If you want to know how we determine a west-based negative NAO, it is literally the negative NAO signature (high pressure system over Greenland) being west of Greenland. In an east-based negative NAO, that ridge is east of Greenland and the Plains/Midwest get in on the cold and snow.

Also intriguing is the ECMWF's push for a slight positive PNA, as the persistent low pressure pattern causing our current, unfavorable negative Pacific-North American (PNA) index phase moves further offshore. The development of low pressure in the East forces high pressure to tend to develop in the Rockies, and suddenly we have the Pacific working in our favor. I would say to watch out for that deep high pressure system in the north Pacific, but if a piece of the polar vortex sticks itself in the Bering Sea, we don't have much to be concerned about in that aspect.

Speaking of the Polar Vortex (PV), notice how we see no strong low pressure anomalies in the Arctic. That's GOOD! What that means is the polar vortex is weak, and when you have a weak polar vortex, you have cold air trying to make a push south. If it were to move south, I have a good feeling it would enter the North Plains and get pulled south as a strong storm system makes its way across the central and east parts of the nation.

Lastly, and one of the more important items of interest is the intense meridional flow we will see if this solution evolves as forecasted by the ECMWF. Meridional flow, for those of you unfamiliar with the term is when the jet stream aligns in a more north-south pattern, rather than just west-east. When you have storms moving through areas of meridional flow, the spin in the energy, called vorticity, is enhanced. As a result, the storm system is strengthened. Ever wondered why storms are enhanced in negative NAO situations? Now you know.

In conclusion, the models seem to be latching onto a much better pattern (especially in the Pacific) for the last week or two of December. This favorable pattern could very well lead into January, where additional chances of more sustained cold are likely to be found. The areas that could be most affected by the new pattern include the Northeast first and foremost, with the Ohio Valley/Midwest/Plains likely to feel the effects as well.

Notice how I didn't mention the GFS here? It's because the GFS has been wobbling recently, and, when in doubt, seek comfort with those you trust (in my case, the ECMWF).

Andrew

December 20-23 Potential Significant Winter Storm

**This post is dedicated to those who lost their lives in the tragic massacre in Connecticut. All information below is typed and published in honor of the children and teachers killed in this horrible event.**

The new models have come in for a December 20-23 potential significant winter storm. Let's get into it.

We start with the European weather service's ECMWF model. This is a forecast for December 19th, and we see two things happening here: a pair of storm systems in New England, as well as a low pressure system beginning to emerge from the Rocky Mountains. Our system is that one emerging from the Rockies, with a central pressure of 993 millibars, meaning it is a fairly strong storm. Let's hone in on the atmospheric set up at this point. We see that dual storm system departing, as well as a weak high pressure system in the Southeast. A high pressure system is also shown in the West US. Not really anything significant to note at this time other than a progressive negative PNA pattern showing up, something likely to change as this system moves east.

24 hours later, we see our system has now moved into the Midwest, pushed in that direction by the Southeast ridge being shown to the east of Florida. We now see a high pressure system in the West US and the Rockies. Note the compact-ness of the low pressure system in the Midwest- that means our system is small but strong, as the central minimum pressure is at 996 millibars. Now, I don't trust the ECMWF path at the moment, and I'll tell you why. The pattern that was ongoing when this system emerged from the Rockies was a negative PNA, meaning that the system goes into the Plains or into the Deep South. Now, the system emerged from the Rockies, and we see the ECMWF project it moving into the Midwest as seeing the image above. As this system moves into this region, it's likely we will see a positive PNA set up, something I will discuss later on.

Now, on the morning of December 22nd, we see our system has shifted into the Northeast, with a minimum pressure nearing 980 millibars. Check out that incredible pressure gradient in the Midwest. The closer those lines (isobars) are together, the stronger the surface winds will be. If that's any indication of what we could see, December 22nd could be a very windy day if the ECMWF pans out.

Here's what I think will be crucial in determining if the ECMWF will work. As I said above, the system will leave the Rockies in the midst of a brief PNA phase change, from negative to positive. Above is the ECMWF's 500mb height anomaly forecast for the morning of December 21st (Oddly enough, the day the world is predicted to end). We can see the storm system in the Ohio Valley, but take a closer look at the ridge in the Rockies. That is a positive PNA, people! Such a positive PNA, combined with the presence of a Southeast ridge presents us with the general idea that a Midwest/Ohio Valley hit is "likely", but only if the pattern works out as the ECMWF is predicting it to.

Before we move on to the GFS model, the ECMWF did show some snowfall in the WI/MI regions from this system, on the order of several inches at most.

This is the American weather service's GFS model, a forecasting model that is always in a tight race with the ECMWF to see which is better. Historically, the ECMWF has a better forecasting record, but the GFS has been catching up recently. Above, we see the December 19th afternoon forecast of sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies. The cool colors show lowered pressures (indicative of a storm system), and warmer colors show raised pressures, which typically show a quieter pattern. This forecast from the GFS shows our storm system in the Midwest at this time. Our Southeast ridge is present, meaning the East Coast isn't so likely to see this storm. Note the timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF for when the storm system moves into the Plains- this GFS forecast is for the afternoon of Dec. 19, and the ECMWF is for the morning of December 20th. As small as 12 hours' difference may seem, I can tell you firsthand that such a difference can bring about severe track changes.

Moving into the early morning of December 21st, we see the storm system has now entered the East Great Lakes with a minimum pressure 993 millibars. Also note the storm system in the Southeast that is likely to swing up the coast. As this storm system moves into the Great Lakes, if the GFS verifies, we could see a nasty cold outbreak across the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley if cold air is indeed available. That's not a guarantee, but something could come out of this.

Here's the thing that really shocks me, but not in the way you think. On the morning of December 22nd, we see our storm system has now bombed out to 971 millibars- a very strong storm system for an on-land system. This is what shocks me: the nature that this storm system takes. We see it move into the Northeast, but suddenly stop moving and retrograde (move west in the North Hemisphere) slightly, essentially staying put. If such an event happened, we could see significant cold and snow across the northeastern quadrant (not specifically limited to the Northeast- imagine cutting the nation into 4 pieces) of the United States.

Total accumulated snow from the GFS through the morning of Dec. 22 shows who could get slammed:

Forecast Preference: ECMWF
Confidence: 30%

Andrew