Real-Time Post: Tsunami Watch - February 5, 2013

This is a real-time post concerning the recent earthquake off the Solomon Islands in the Pacific.

AT 8:56 PM CT: Two reports of tsunami wave below 1 foot; readings were from deep ocean and will be smaller than shore waves.

AT 8:48 PM CT: Villages reported to be 'destroyed' in Solomon Islands.

At 8:10 PM CT: Tsunami Warnings have now been issued. From the PTWC:

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

 SOLOMON ISLANDS / VANUATU / NAURU / PAPUA NEW GUINEA / TUVALU /
 NEW CALEDONIA / KOSRAE / FIJI / KIRIBATI / WALLIS AND FUTUNA /
 MARSHALL ISLANDS / HOWLAND AND BAKER / POHNPEI / TOKELAU

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

 SAMOA / KERMADEC ISLANDS / NEW ZEALAND / AMERICAN SAMOA /
 TONGA / AUSTRALIA / NIUE / COOK ISLANDS / INDONESIA /
 WAKE ISLAND / CHUUK / JARVIS ISLAND / GUAM / NORTHERN MARIANAS /
 PALMYRA ISLAND / YAP / JOHNSTON ISLAND / MINAMITORISHIMA /
 BELAU / MIDWAY ISLAND


At 8:06 PM CT: A new ShakeMap from the USGS illustrates the strong vibrations created by this earthquake in the Solomon Islands.

At 8:03 PM CT: From CNN: A tsunami warning was issued for the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, New Caledonia, Kosrae, Fiji, Kiribati, and Wallis and Futuna, according to the the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
A tsunami watch was in effect for more places.

At 7:56 PM CT: A tsunami has been generated by an earthquake in the western Pacific Ocean. Here are forecasted arrival times.

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0149Z 06 FEB 2013

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

SOLOMON ISLANDS / VANUATU / NAURU / PAPUA NEW GUINEA / TUVALU /
NEW CALEDONIA / KOSRAE / FIJI / KIRIBATI / WALLIS AND FUTUNA /
MARSHALL ISLANDS / HOWLAND AND BAKER / POHNPEI / TOKELAU

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

SAMOA / KERMADEC ISLANDS / NEW ZEALAND / AMERICAN SAMOA /
TONGA / AUSTRALIA / NIUE / COOK ISLANDS / INDONESIA /
WAKE ISLAND / CHUUK / JARVIS ISLAND / GUAM / NORTHERN MARIANAS /
PALMYRA ISLAND / YAP / JOHNSTON ISLAND / MINAMITORISHIMA /
BELAU / MIDWAY ISLAND

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0112Z 06 FEB 2013
COORDINATES - 10.9 SOUTH 165.1 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 8.0

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
LATA WHARF SB 10.7S 165.8E 0129Z 0.91M / 3.0FT 18MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
SOLOMON ISLANDS KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 0145Z 06 FEB
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 0216Z 06 FEB
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 0222Z 06 FEB
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 0227Z 06 FEB
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 0233Z 06 FEB
PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 0245Z 06 FEB
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 0253Z 06 FEB
VANUATU ESPERITU_SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 0158Z 06 FEB
ANATOM_ISLAND 20.2S 169.9E 0254Z 06 FEB
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 0300Z 06 FEB
PAPUA NEW GUINE KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 0304Z 06 FEB
AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 0306Z 06 FEB
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 0330Z 06 FEB
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 0402Z 06 FEB
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 0406Z 06 FEB
PORT_MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 0426Z 06 FEB
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 0428Z 06 FEB
MANUS_ISLAND 2.0S 147.5E 0445Z 06 FEB
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 0509Z 06 FEB
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 0530Z 06 FEB
TUVALU FUNAFUTI_ISLAND 7.9S 178.5E 0322Z 06 FEB
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 0339Z 06 FEB
KOSRAE KOSRAE_ISLAND 5.5N 163.0E 0354Z 06 FEB
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 0405Z 06 FEB
KIRIBATI TARAWA_ISLAND 1.5N 173.0E 0406Z 06 FEB
KANTON_ISLAND 2.8S 188.3E 0446Z 06 FEB
CHRISTMAS_ISLAN 2.0N 202.5E 0650Z 06 FEB
MALDEN_ISLAND 3.9S 205.1E 0700Z 06 FEB
FLINT_ISLAND 11.4S 208.2E 0732Z 06 FEB
WALLIS AND FUTU FUTUNA_ISLAND 14.3S 181.8E 0414Z 06 FEB
WALLIS_ISLAND 13.3S 183.8E 0422Z 06 FEB
MARSHALL ISLAND KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 0420Z 06 FEB
MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 0424Z 06 FEB
ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 0457Z 06 FEB
HOWLAND AND BAK HOWLAND_ISLAND 0.6N 183.4E 0424Z 06 FEB
POHNPEI POHNPEI_ISLAND 7.0N 158.2E 0438Z 06 FEB
TOKELAU NUKUNONU_ISLAND 9.2S 188.2E 0440Z 06 FEB
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 188.2E 0458Z 06 FEB
KERMADEC ISLAND RAOUL_ISLAND 29.2S 182.1E 0504Z 06 FEB
NEW ZEALAND NORTH_CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 0505Z 06 FEB
AUCKLAND_WEST 37.1S 174.2E 0606Z 06 FEB
EAST_CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 0615Z 06 FEB
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 0639Z 06 FEB
AUCKLAND_EAST 36.7S 175.0E 0647Z 06 FEB
NEW_PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 0651Z 06 FEB
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 0703Z 06 FEB
MILFORD_SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 0720Z 06 FEB
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 0727Z 06 FEB
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 0730Z 06 FEB
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO_PAGO 14.3S 189.3E 0506Z 06 FEB
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 184.8E 0514Z 06 FEB
AUSTRALIA BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 0515Z 06 FEB
CAIRNS 16.7S 145.8E 0520Z 06 FEB
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 0546Z 06 FEB
GLADSTONE 23.8S 151.4E 0625Z 06 FEB
HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 0721Z 06 FEB
MACKAY 21.1S 149.3E 0741Z 06 FEB
NIUE NIUE_ISLAND 19.0S 190.0E 0531Z 06 FEB
COOK ISLANDS PUKAPUKA_ISLAND 10.8S 194.1E 0533Z 06 FEB
PENRYN_ISLAND 8.9S 202.2E 0641Z 06 FEB
RAROTONGA 21.2S 200.2E 0647Z 06 FEB
INDONESIA JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 0537Z 06 FEB
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 0622Z 06 FEB
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 0641Z 06 FEB
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 0710Z 06 FEB
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 0730Z 06 FEB
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 0739Z 06 FEB
WAKE ISLAND WAKE_ISLAND 19.3N 166.6E 0547Z 06 FEB
CHUUK CHUUK_ISLAND 7.4N 151.8E 0555Z 06 FEB
JARVIS ISLAND JARVIS_ISLAND 0.4S 199.9E 0621Z 06 FEB
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0622Z 06 FEB
NORTHERN MARIAN SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0626Z 06 FEB
PALMYRA ISLAND PALMYRA_ISLAND 6.3N 197.6E 0628Z 06 FEB
YAP YAP_ISLAND 9.5N 138.1E 0635Z 06 FEB
JOHNSTON ISLAND JOHNSTON_ISLAND 16.7N 190.5E 0637Z 06 FEB
MINAMITORISHIMA MINAMITORISHIMA 24.3N 154.0E 0640Z 06 FEB
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 0658Z 06 FEB
MIDWAY ISLAND MIDWAY_ISLAND 28.2N 182.6E 0733Z 06 FEB

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.

February 8-9 Potential Winter Storm

A snowfall event looks to be setting up for the Northeast.

The above model shows the snowfall forecast for February 9th. Keep in mind this is total accumulated snow. The GFS model is printing out several inches for inland New York, southern Maine and other states in New England. Heavier totals, possibly close to a foot of snow, may hit eastern New York, Massachusetts, and even into Vermont.

I should mention that the shorter-range NAM model is much less enthusiastic with these totals, and other models are not supportive of such a big snowfall like the one shown above. Regardless, accumulating snow is likely to fall in this region. Totals will become more apparent with time.

Andrew

Valentine's Day Potential Coastal Snowstorm

There is potential for a coastal snowstorm near Valentine's Day on the 14th.

Above, the mean sea level pressure forecast is shown for February 12th. The synoptic overview is very stagnant, with strong high pressure in place across the nation. A large swath of modest low pressure is present north of the Yucatan Peninsula in the western Gulf of Mexico. This is the storm system we are watching for this event. To be perfectly honest, the prized Nor'easter track is quite nearly the only option this storm has. You have two strong high pressure masses that are essentially rolling out the red carpet between them. With strong high pressure over land and equally strong high pressure out to sea, any storm systems are easily persuaded into going up the East Coast.

Moving ahead to February 13th, the storm system has taken that red carpet path up the coast and is in the Mid-Atlantic. Although it shows two low pressure systems, I have a pretty good feeling that they would have a fair shot at merging, if this forecast were to verify. Regardless, both high pressure areas previously mentioned have now moved out of their domains, with the US high pressure pushing south and the Atlantic high pressure system also pushing south. This then raises the question, can the storm still continue on a path that would favor a lot of snow for the Northeast? Well, if we look again at the storm system, we see a tendency for lower pressure to apparently be trying to spread east towards the Atlantic. That tells me that it wants to go out to sea rather than going up the coast. In the Nor'easter track's defense, the storm is well enough inland that, even if it were to try and go out to sea, it would be moving northeast and would still make a clean hit on the Northeast for accumulating snow.

I want to dabble in that February 13th timeframe some more, but now we are looking at 500 millibar height anomalies, with warm colors indicating high pressure and cold colors showing low pressure. I'm taking a look at the atmospheric set-up for this storm, and i'm not really getting good vibes about it. In order for the storm to go up the coast, high latitude blocking in Greenland is almost a necessity. And while we do have some high pressure anomalies over Greenland, the majority is too far south for my liking. Also, high pressure in the Pacific Northwest and low pressure trying to rebuild in the Southwest makes me think a Rex Block is trying to form. The Rex Block consists of high pressure stacked on top of low pressure. Downstream of this blocking pattern is more zonally-oriented (west-to-east jet stream, little cold) wind flow, something that would try to force this storm to go more out to sea rather than up the East Coast.

Finally, we arrive on Valentine's Day. The storm has 'bombed out' to a central minimum pressure of 980 millibars in typical Nor'easter fashion. It is certainly giving quite a bit of love to the New England area, as very heavy snow is accumulating in much of the region as this event happens. As the projected snowfall graphic shows below, the accumulations would be extreme if this event happened:

I need to see multiple runs of the ECMWF in coming days to see if this event is still a go in the model's eyes, because right now, there is little support in other models and ensembles for an event of this magnitude to happen. I'm very on-edge about the lack of blocking high pressure over Greenland; I really want to see more enthusiastic high pressure over that land mass before I can look more positively at this storm's prospects. I would also like to see less of that Rex Block set-up; that puts me at an uneasiness I need to settle before I go ahead with more confidence on this event's potential.

Andrew

Winter Not Over Yet

I do not believe that winter is over just yet, although we begin to approach the final weeks of the winter season.

Pictured above is the GFS Ensemble 500 millibar forecast for the very end of the forecast period, February 20th. High pressure has built in over the North Pole, and strong low pressure is present over south central Canada, extending into the Great Lakes. This is all in response to the sudden stratospheric warming we saw earlier on last month. The warming is now dying off, but its effects will continue for at least another week or two. During this time, previous warming will continue to propagate down to the surface, leading to increased chances for cold weather. One thing I am fairly certain of is the high latitude blocking finally making it into the North Pole. This blocking high pressure is already in northern Asia in the medium range, so only a slight shove north would result in the high pressure system reaching the North Pole. This could also be another effect of the previous sudden stratospheric warmings, or SSW's. SSW's are known to provoke blocking high pressure in the higher latitudes, so such a solution is certainly plausible. I do have some concerns about that small low pressure area in the Southwest US and high pressure area in the Pacific Northwest. That is a common set-up for a Rex Block pattern, which can induce warm and dry conditions over the East US- something snow lovers are certainly fearing.

Now, you may have seen some Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecasts that were moving into Phases 1-3 during this timeframe, which decreases cold and snow chances with each increasing phase. However, it looks like those models may be on the wrong track. As several global models have also been hinting at, this forecast shown above depicts Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies for the next few weeks. The images are centered over the Equatorial Pacific, where the MJO occurs. For those unfamiliar with the concept, the MJO changes phases by tropical convection moving from one part of the Equatorial Pacific to another. Cold and snow is most favored when this enhanced convection (negative OLR) is shown in the Atlantic or the Indian Ocean. The above forecast from the Roundy Waves Albany indicates that very powerful negative OLR anomalies may evolve going into the last week of February. It is plausible that the last week of February may then be very active. I would like to wait a little longer until we get closer to this timeframe, but right now, it appears that a cycling MJO in phases 8-2 may occur throughout February. Those three phases are notorious for bringing cold and snow to parts of the US in the cold season.

Andrew

Valentine's Day Possible Winter Storm

It looks like the atmosphere is preparing itself for a winter storm that would hit around Valentine's Day.

Above is the GFS Ensemble 500 millibar height anomaly forecast for February 10th. We can see low pressure in the Southwest US, as well as high pressure stacked on top of it in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest Canadian regions. This stacking formation is an atmospheric blocking pattern called the Rex Block. When the Rex Block sets up, you have two centers of low pressure and high pressure that are essentially not moving unless the other does. As a result of Rex Blocks that form on the West Coast, one tends to find high pressure and zonally-oriented (plain west-to-east wind flow, no cold shots pushing south) wind flow. This is exhibited well in the forecast image above, where you can see strong high pressure in the East US as a byproduct of not only the solid Rex Block, but also due to the deep trough in the Bering Sea. This trough of low pressure means an index called the West Pacific Oscillation is positive. The positive WPO brings about low pressure in the Bering Sea and high pressure (and warm temperatures) in the East US.

Moving ahead to February 12th, we see that it is the low pressure system in the Southwest that has budged first. As a result, the high pressure system in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest Canada has backed off and begun to shift a tad west back towards the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Alaska. Due to the concurrent weakening of the trough in the Bering Sea, the positive WPO regime weakens, and the high pressure system in the East US begins to move out to sea and weaken in the process. But back to the storm, that low pressure system that essentially blinked first in the Rex Block has to go somewhere. And the only option is for it to go east into the Plains. This is displayed well in the ensemble forecasts for this depression in 500 millibar heights to shift towards New Mexico and Texas. If we look at the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, we can get a feel for the factors that will play into the eventual track for this system. For one, low pressure is centered over southern Greenland, so this storm is unlikely to go up the coast....for now. Low pressure in the Bering Sea and high pressure in the East pretty much rules out a coastal track or even a track that brings the best snow to the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes. It is very possible that the track would be up through the central and Northern Plains, a track that has fooled the Central and East US out of far too many storm systems this winter.

This is certainly bound to change, and I will update when it does. This is a look at what could happen come Valentine's Day.

Andrew