Historic Northeast Coastal Storm Update -- 9:00 PM 2/7

This historic Northeast coastal storm continues to be on track to produce nearly 3 feet of snow for parts of New England.

Prognosis... Alberta clipper continues to progress eastward after impacting Midwest and Great Lakes with accumulating snow. Worth noting is earlier than normal rain-to-snow transition in parts of the Lower Great Lakes, something that could have an impact on the Northeast. Southern stream includes the main part of the system, with 700 millibar winds very elevated in the chart on the left. Latest analysis has center of this piece of energy just off the Gulf shore. Lower level wind flow remains favorable for a phasing of these two systems in coming hours.
Model forecasts continue to print historic totals for this event, with the above high resolution NAM model printing above 30 inches of snow for many areas in the New England area. Analysis of other models reveals hi-res NAM and ECMWF are aligned in the same forecast. GFS is more bearish than the other two, but will prefer the ECMWF/Hi-res NAM as the European is the more reliable model of the three.

Special morning analysis comes tomorrow.

Andrew

Valentine's Day Potential Significant Nor'easter

There is potential for a significant Nor'easter that would hit the Northeast on Valentine's Day.

The GFS model is predicting a storm system to ride the Southern US and shoot north along the East Coast, gaining strength as it does so from the Atlantic Ocean. This system would most likely be riding on an increasingly-strengthening subtropical jet stream, which does hold its domain in the Southern US and is commonly the preferred jet stream that produces Nor'easters. Global wind observations and torque anomalies tell me that this is indeed a potential significant storm system, if the energy can flow into the subtropical jet stream (STJ) and the stream can cooperate to send the system into the Northeast.

48 hour snowfall forecasts from the same GFS model run show as much as 18 inches of snow hitting central New York as a result of this event. If you do the math, that's just under a fourth of an inch per hour if the snow fell continuously. The more likely scenario would be very heavy snow falling in a relatively short period of time; snow does not tend to keep to a constant track of 'x' inches per hour.

This system has been showing up for a while now, and must be watched very carefully. The presence of an enhanced subtropical jet stream and a more active period incoming as the Rex Block places low pressure in the Southwest does provide chances for possibly significant snow in the US.

Andrew

February 8-10 Historic Coastal Storm

A Nor'easter of historic proportions will be setting up for the end of this workweek.

Pictured above are three forecast models- the American (GFS) model, the European (ECMWF) model, and the short range NAM model. All three models have their triumphs and their flaws. Generally, the NAM model is known to exaggerate snowfall totals. The European model is generally regarded as the best forecast model for winter storms, but has recently been faltering.

Regardless, a major Nor'easter coastal storm will be setting up just off the coast of New England to give the region a serious wake up call in the form of extreme snow totals. It appears that two bodies of precipitation will merge in the waters immediately offshore. The basis for this event will come from a storm system that is predicted to plow across the Southeast after originating in the Gulf of Mexico. The fact that it is coming from that region means it will be absolutely soaked with moisture. The second piece of energy will be sliding east from the Great Lakes, where it may drop anywhere from 6-12 inches in some parts of Michigan and even create a freezing rain event in portions of the Lower Great Lakes. This first storm system that comes from the Gulf enhances the potential for heavy snow, and the forecast models realize this. The current forecast is for the combined storm system to reach pressure levels as low as 983 millibars just offshore of Massachusetts. The presence of the Atlantic Ocean does contribute to this, and its formation in the Gulf of Mexico means all the more snow potential for the Northeast.

Andrew

Real-Time Post: Tsunami Watch - February 5, 2013

This is a real-time post concerning the recent earthquake off the Solomon Islands in the Pacific.

AT 8:56 PM CT: Two reports of tsunami wave below 1 foot; readings were from deep ocean and will be smaller than shore waves.

AT 8:48 PM CT: Villages reported to be 'destroyed' in Solomon Islands.

At 8:10 PM CT: Tsunami Warnings have now been issued. From the PTWC:

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

 SOLOMON ISLANDS / VANUATU / NAURU / PAPUA NEW GUINEA / TUVALU /
 NEW CALEDONIA / KOSRAE / FIJI / KIRIBATI / WALLIS AND FUTUNA /
 MARSHALL ISLANDS / HOWLAND AND BAKER / POHNPEI / TOKELAU

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

 SAMOA / KERMADEC ISLANDS / NEW ZEALAND / AMERICAN SAMOA /
 TONGA / AUSTRALIA / NIUE / COOK ISLANDS / INDONESIA /
 WAKE ISLAND / CHUUK / JARVIS ISLAND / GUAM / NORTHERN MARIANAS /
 PALMYRA ISLAND / YAP / JOHNSTON ISLAND / MINAMITORISHIMA /
 BELAU / MIDWAY ISLAND


At 8:06 PM CT: A new ShakeMap from the USGS illustrates the strong vibrations created by this earthquake in the Solomon Islands.

At 8:03 PM CT: From CNN: A tsunami warning was issued for the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, New Caledonia, Kosrae, Fiji, Kiribati, and Wallis and Futuna, according to the the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
A tsunami watch was in effect for more places.

At 7:56 PM CT: A tsunami has been generated by an earthquake in the western Pacific Ocean. Here are forecasted arrival times.

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0149Z 06 FEB 2013

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

SOLOMON ISLANDS / VANUATU / NAURU / PAPUA NEW GUINEA / TUVALU /
NEW CALEDONIA / KOSRAE / FIJI / KIRIBATI / WALLIS AND FUTUNA /
MARSHALL ISLANDS / HOWLAND AND BAKER / POHNPEI / TOKELAU

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

SAMOA / KERMADEC ISLANDS / NEW ZEALAND / AMERICAN SAMOA /
TONGA / AUSTRALIA / NIUE / COOK ISLANDS / INDONESIA /
WAKE ISLAND / CHUUK / JARVIS ISLAND / GUAM / NORTHERN MARIANAS /
PALMYRA ISLAND / YAP / JOHNSTON ISLAND / MINAMITORISHIMA /
BELAU / MIDWAY ISLAND

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0112Z 06 FEB 2013
COORDINATES - 10.9 SOUTH 165.1 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 8.0

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
LATA WHARF SB 10.7S 165.8E 0129Z 0.91M / 3.0FT 18MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
SOLOMON ISLANDS KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 0145Z 06 FEB
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 0216Z 06 FEB
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 0222Z 06 FEB
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 0227Z 06 FEB
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 0233Z 06 FEB
PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 0245Z 06 FEB
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 0253Z 06 FEB
VANUATU ESPERITU_SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 0158Z 06 FEB
ANATOM_ISLAND 20.2S 169.9E 0254Z 06 FEB
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 0300Z 06 FEB
PAPUA NEW GUINE KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 0304Z 06 FEB
AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 0306Z 06 FEB
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 0330Z 06 FEB
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 0402Z 06 FEB
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 0406Z 06 FEB
PORT_MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 0426Z 06 FEB
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 0428Z 06 FEB
MANUS_ISLAND 2.0S 147.5E 0445Z 06 FEB
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 0509Z 06 FEB
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 0530Z 06 FEB
TUVALU FUNAFUTI_ISLAND 7.9S 178.5E 0322Z 06 FEB
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 0339Z 06 FEB
KOSRAE KOSRAE_ISLAND 5.5N 163.0E 0354Z 06 FEB
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 0405Z 06 FEB
KIRIBATI TARAWA_ISLAND 1.5N 173.0E 0406Z 06 FEB
KANTON_ISLAND 2.8S 188.3E 0446Z 06 FEB
CHRISTMAS_ISLAN 2.0N 202.5E 0650Z 06 FEB
MALDEN_ISLAND 3.9S 205.1E 0700Z 06 FEB
FLINT_ISLAND 11.4S 208.2E 0732Z 06 FEB
WALLIS AND FUTU FUTUNA_ISLAND 14.3S 181.8E 0414Z 06 FEB
WALLIS_ISLAND 13.3S 183.8E 0422Z 06 FEB
MARSHALL ISLAND KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 0420Z 06 FEB
MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 0424Z 06 FEB
ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 0457Z 06 FEB
HOWLAND AND BAK HOWLAND_ISLAND 0.6N 183.4E 0424Z 06 FEB
POHNPEI POHNPEI_ISLAND 7.0N 158.2E 0438Z 06 FEB
TOKELAU NUKUNONU_ISLAND 9.2S 188.2E 0440Z 06 FEB
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 188.2E 0458Z 06 FEB
KERMADEC ISLAND RAOUL_ISLAND 29.2S 182.1E 0504Z 06 FEB
NEW ZEALAND NORTH_CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 0505Z 06 FEB
AUCKLAND_WEST 37.1S 174.2E 0606Z 06 FEB
EAST_CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 0615Z 06 FEB
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 0639Z 06 FEB
AUCKLAND_EAST 36.7S 175.0E 0647Z 06 FEB
NEW_PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 0651Z 06 FEB
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 0703Z 06 FEB
MILFORD_SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 0720Z 06 FEB
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 0727Z 06 FEB
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 0730Z 06 FEB
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO_PAGO 14.3S 189.3E 0506Z 06 FEB
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 184.8E 0514Z 06 FEB
AUSTRALIA BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 0515Z 06 FEB
CAIRNS 16.7S 145.8E 0520Z 06 FEB
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 0546Z 06 FEB
GLADSTONE 23.8S 151.4E 0625Z 06 FEB
HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 0721Z 06 FEB
MACKAY 21.1S 149.3E 0741Z 06 FEB
NIUE NIUE_ISLAND 19.0S 190.0E 0531Z 06 FEB
COOK ISLANDS PUKAPUKA_ISLAND 10.8S 194.1E 0533Z 06 FEB
PENRYN_ISLAND 8.9S 202.2E 0641Z 06 FEB
RAROTONGA 21.2S 200.2E 0647Z 06 FEB
INDONESIA JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 0537Z 06 FEB
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 0622Z 06 FEB
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 0641Z 06 FEB
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 0710Z 06 FEB
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 0730Z 06 FEB
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 0739Z 06 FEB
WAKE ISLAND WAKE_ISLAND 19.3N 166.6E 0547Z 06 FEB
CHUUK CHUUK_ISLAND 7.4N 151.8E 0555Z 06 FEB
JARVIS ISLAND JARVIS_ISLAND 0.4S 199.9E 0621Z 06 FEB
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0622Z 06 FEB
NORTHERN MARIAN SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0626Z 06 FEB
PALMYRA ISLAND PALMYRA_ISLAND 6.3N 197.6E 0628Z 06 FEB
YAP YAP_ISLAND 9.5N 138.1E 0635Z 06 FEB
JOHNSTON ISLAND JOHNSTON_ISLAND 16.7N 190.5E 0637Z 06 FEB
MINAMITORISHIMA MINAMITORISHIMA 24.3N 154.0E 0640Z 06 FEB
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 0658Z 06 FEB
MIDWAY ISLAND MIDWAY_ISLAND 28.2N 182.6E 0733Z 06 FEB

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.

February 8-9 Potential Winter Storm

A snowfall event looks to be setting up for the Northeast.

The above model shows the snowfall forecast for February 9th. Keep in mind this is total accumulated snow. The GFS model is printing out several inches for inland New York, southern Maine and other states in New England. Heavier totals, possibly close to a foot of snow, may hit eastern New York, Massachusetts, and even into Vermont.

I should mention that the shorter-range NAM model is much less enthusiastic with these totals, and other models are not supportive of such a big snowfall like the one shown above. Regardless, accumulating snow is likely to fall in this region. Totals will become more apparent with time.

Andrew