December 20 Snow Event Briefing (Updated 12/12)

The GFS Ensembles have been getting slightly stronger with this storm each run in terms of amounts of precipitation. We will have a full discussion this afternoon as we are currently limited on time.

Do you want your own town's winter forecast? Click here and comment on the post with the location you want a forecast for. Towns will be accepted thru Dec. 20

Want to know your town's personal winter forecast?

Comment on this post with the town you would like to have a winter forecast made for.
You may want to comment your town quickly, because we tend to inadvertently become a little generic on the last few forecasts.
Towns will be accepted thru December 20.

December 20 Snow Event (Midwest Affected) (Updated 12/11)

12z runs of both

There are very substantial differences between the GFS ENS (Ensembles) and the GFS at hour 216, supposedly when a winter storm is to affect the Midwest. The ensembles have been saying that a piece of energy will move NE from Texas and affect the Midwest and Ohio Valley as shown on the right. The GFS OP (Operational, the actual thing, not the ensembles) prefers to send this piece of energy along the Gulf coast and northward, bombing out into a coastal storm on the East Coast.
We are leaning towards the GFS ENS right now, because the actual models do not fare well during a pattern change, which is currently starting. That said, it is best to go towards the ensembles.
Some notes on other 12z models as they come in...

12z NOGAPS is very similar to 12z GFS OP at hour 144, likely takes path shown on left image at the top.

Pattern Change Starting

Temperatures at 1mb level.

The much-anticipated pattern change is starting up, in accordance with our mid-December prediction for the pattern change. The above graphic displays temperatures at the 1mb level. You can see that the red line (observed temperatures) is beginning to move towards more positive territory, which would warm up the atmosphere, release the cold air in the north, and definitely start up the winter pattern. We will be closely monitoring this temperature trend, but things are indeed looking up for winter to start.

The Texas County with the Least-Present Drought Conditions is...

RED RIVER COUNTY, TEXAS

Red River County is the county in Texas that is faring the best with the drought, as per drought analysis. Below is a graph of current drought conditions along with a legend for the colors. Below the legend is the percent of the state that is covered in each state of drought. Note: A county in any drought level is also included in all the less-severe drought levels.

Red River County is the county in NE Texas with yellow in it.