Severe Weather Possible Thursday

I am monitoring the potential for some hazardous or potentially severe weather in the Plains come Thursday. Looking at the image above, there is a vorticity maximum in northeastern New Mexico, suggesting the presence of a low pressure system. It looks like it will be negatively tilted, with the highest vorticity values pointing towards the southeast. This negative tilt will add to much needed instability if storms want to develop.
A lack of jet stream support and stronger vorticity values is leading me to assume that this will not be a big event. I am not seeing sufficient jet stream winds to indicate that this storm will be strong enough to cause a more large-scale event, and that this may be a slightly more localized event.

Instability values will be pretty impressive with CAPE values exceeding 3000 j/kg in Kansas and Missouri, as well as parts of Oklahoma. Again, this storm system is not looking too strong, so maximum instability is going to be around what is shown here. Considering the system is in northeastern New Mexico, the system should move in a general east-northeast direction, giving the Oklahoma/Kansas areas the first shots at severe weather potential.

Here is the reason storms may struggle to form. A huge storm-suppressing cap of warm air will be over the darkest shades of blue, meaning that a lot of instability will be needed to break this. As of now, it looks like a good 3000 j/kg of CAPE will be necessary to break the cap and then produce severe storms. This is about the maximum instability being offered by the so-so storm system.

When it comes down to it, the instability will probably cancel out the cap and ignite some storms. The question is, will these storms be severe, and could they be tornadic? I would not go as far as to forecast that, but using these indications, I would say that some severe storms are possible, but lack of major shearing is discouraging for tornado potential.

Andrew

Nor'easter Real-Time Page is Online

I set up a real-time page loaded with images concerning the upcoming Nor'easter.

Live Page link

Nor'easter Beginning to Take Shape

As of this morning, the two pieces of energy needed for the Nor'easter are making their rendezvous point around the offshore areas of Georgia and South Carolina. We have an energized clipper system currently in place over southern Illinois, and the second piece of energy containing much of the moisture centered to the west of Florida. The systems will continue to be forced east as a massive ridge can be seen over the Western US, distinguished by the large arching lines.

As I mentioned earlier, much of the moisture and initial energy will be coming from the second system near Florida. This is another infrared view, showing just how little moisture and energy the clipper has to work with (scattered colors over WI/IL) at this time.

Again- they are on their way and will be phasing likely beginning today.

Andrew

Video Briefing Concerning the Northeast Storm System

30 Inches of Snow Possible in New York with Late April Snowstorm

A strong storm system is forecast to put down up to 30 inches of snow in western New York in the next few days. The image above portrays the storm system superimposed with 900mb wind speeds. These can show just how strong the storm system is. Below is the SREF snowfall forecast for Jamestown Airport, New York.

While many members are indicating snow to be somewhere in the 10-20 inch range, a few select members are choosing to go 20-30 inches. However, with every high end there is a low end, and this low end totals 1-5 inches as a storm total.
I am thinking that, with the ratios of snow being so low, and the storm system being so strong, that this will likely even out to a good 10-17 inch total for the hardest hit areas.

Andrew