Tropics Should Be Watched in Next 7 Days

The HPC has put out a forecast indicating that a stationary front is to be in place just along the Gulf Coast. With any front comes the potential of storms, but in tropical waters, those same storms may very well ignite some sort of tropical system.

Around this timeframe, the ECMWF, ECMWF Ensembles, and GFS appear to form a weak system in the Gulf of Mexico. This system would then quickly shift east northeast out to sea, possibly developing into a strong tropical cyclone as it does so, as indicated by the Hour 168 image shown below from the ECMWF.

Severe Weather Targets Eastern Kansas Today

General severe weather risk

Risk of a tornado

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes in eastern Kansas today, as a warm front lifts north across the area to produce scattered strong thunderstorms.

I am a bit skeptical, because the latest WRF and WRF Ensembles I have seen seem to put the storms more into Oklahoma than Kansas. It should be noted that the NAM also shows this solution.

I will keep up to date with the RAP model forecasts and post new information on the Facebook page. 

6/2/12

No post today, have been out and about.

Debating the release of something that would resemble a new 2012-2013 winter forecast. I'm going to set up a poll on the right momentarily to ask if you would want me to release that.

Andrew

Confirmed Tornado- Hampton, VA

140
WWUS51 KAKQ 020019
SVSAKQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
819 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

VAC650-700-735-020030-
/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120602T0030Z/
CITY OF POQUOSON VA-CITY OF HAMPTON VA-CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS VA-
819 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CITY
OF NEWPORT NEWS...EASTERN CITY OF HAMPTON AND SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF
POQUOSON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 815 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUCKROE BEACH...OR
NEAR HAMPTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GRAND VIEW AROUND 825 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE FOX HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7629 3699 7630 3700 7633 3700 7634
3703 7638 3710 7635 3715 7631 3712 7627
3709 7626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 230DEG 20KT 3705 7631

Tornado Warning- Newport News, VA

188
WFUS51 KAKQ 012355
TORAKQ
VAC650-700-735-020030-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0009.120601T2355Z-120602T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
755 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CITY OF HAMPTON IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF POQUOSON IN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 751 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRITTENDEN...OR 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF CHURCHLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FORT MONROE AROUND 815 PM EDT.
BUCKROE BEACH AND HAMPTON AROUND 820 PM EDT.
GRAND VIEW AROUND 825 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE RALEIGH
TERRACE...LANGLEY VIEW...PHOEBUS...HALLWOOD AND FOX HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7629 3699 7630 3700 7633 3700 7636
3698 7637 3696 7636 3693 7640 3694 7644
3696 7645 3715 7631 3712 7627 3709 7626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 230DEG 20KT 3695 7642