Weekend Severe Threat May Turn Significant for North Plains

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined two areas of severe weather for June 9th and 10th, for Days 6 (D6) and 7 (D7), respectively. It is somewhat uncommon to have risk areas outlined in the 4-8 day outlook, but more on the rare side for anything above Day 6 to be issued. That said, an SPC Day 6 and 7 risk areas means that there is an unusually high amount of confidence for this event. Let's take a look.

On June 9th, a strong low pressure system with central pressure of 996 millibars looks to shift east into the Northern Plains. Tight isobars indicate that the scene will be a windy one; not surprising with the presence of a strong cold front and low pressure system.
A warm front looks to be extending north into the US-Canada border, bringing temperatures to summer-like conditions across the Plains and Midwest regions. Out west, a dry line will be present from western Texas north into South Dakota. It is not common for a dry line to stretch so far north, so this looks to be an unusual event at hand. A cold front will be sweeping east from the Rockies to spark thunderstorms across the Dakotas and probably farther south as well. However, only the Dakotas look to have 3000+ j/kg of instability.

The HPC's Gridded Forecasts spread a swath of potential of severe weather from Texas to the US-Canada Border. There is a small pocket of 'Likely' severe weather in eastern portions of the Dakotas, mainly in North Dakota. Minnesota and Nebraska look to also be in the line of fire, with areas farther south and west receiving low end risks of severe weather potential.

I will be closely watching this situation for anything else, but the main concerns appear to be hail and damaging winds for now.

Andrew

Post on Weekend Severe Threat at 4:00 PM CDT

A special post on a potentially significant severe weather outbreak this weekend will be posted at 4:00 PM CDT.

Tropical System Threatens Mobile, Alabama in Long Range

This morning's 6z GFS has portrayed the potential of a tropical system hitting Mobile, Alabama in the mid June timeframe. This system looks to be fairly on the middle of the strength spectrum, with a central pressure of 999 mb.

It should be known that many things factor into this scenario:
•This solution has been portrayed before by the GFS.
•The Azores High may be too strong for formation.
•This is at the end of the GFS run (16 days).

Nonetheless, I am thinking that this does have potential and should be closely watched in the next few weeks.

Tropics Should Be Watched in Next 7 Days

The HPC has put out a forecast indicating that a stationary front is to be in place just along the Gulf Coast. With any front comes the potential of storms, but in tropical waters, those same storms may very well ignite some sort of tropical system.

Around this timeframe, the ECMWF, ECMWF Ensembles, and GFS appear to form a weak system in the Gulf of Mexico. This system would then quickly shift east northeast out to sea, possibly developing into a strong tropical cyclone as it does so, as indicated by the Hour 168 image shown below from the ECMWF.

Severe Weather Targets Eastern Kansas Today

General severe weather risk

Risk of a tornado

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes in eastern Kansas today, as a warm front lifts north across the area to produce scattered strong thunderstorms.

I am a bit skeptical, because the latest WRF and WRF Ensembles I have seen seem to put the storms more into Oklahoma than Kansas. It should be noted that the NAM also shows this solution.

I will keep up to date with the RAP model forecasts and post new information on the Facebook page.