Cool Underwater Anomalies Threaten El Nino's Existence

Latest underwater anomalies from the TAO/TRITON agency suggest a building of cooler than normal waters below the surface. This comes as the atmosphere does not react favorably in the presence of an El Nino.

Waters as cool as 2 degrees below normal are being measured approximately 200 meters below the surface, outperforming that of the El Nino, which is being clocked at 1 degree above normal. Common sense says that such an abundance of cool water is suggesting something is happening, whether it is recognized or not. At the moment, I have a fine time believing that these colder waters will rise to the surface and overtake the El Nino to make for a neutral-ENSO winter. This body of cooler waters has been strengthening over the past while, as the El Nino actually takes it down a notch.

For those wondering, if this were a La Nina (NOT saying it is), this would be more east based, borderline central based. However, I am not nearly defining this as a La Nina. It is what it is: a cool body of water below a warm body of water.

This is one of the tricky parts of forecasting: Do you judge a book by its cover, or do you look deeper into what's really going on? I, in an attempt to give you the best information, believe that these cooler waters are weakening the El Nino. I do not anticipate an El Nino to be around by the time January rolls around. I base this on an unfavorable atmospheric response thus far, as well as this new cold body of water that, should it be on the surface, would be classified as a strong La Nina.

Andrew

Record Low Arctic Ice May Play Crucial Role In Atmospheric Blocking Come Winter

A record low amount of ice in the Arctic could play a big role in how atmospheric blocking may evolve in the upcoming winter.

At the latest observation, ice in the Arctic was down to 3.5 million kilometers(squared). That seems like a lot, and you bet it is. But, when you see that the average for this time of year is hovering around the 5-6 million square kilometer mark, you can see that this is pretty unusual.

The lack of sea ice, in a cause-effect relationship, typically reduces the amount of cold air in the Arctic. The less cold air there is in the Arctic, especially in wintertime, the more negative the Arctic Oscillation tends to be. The Arctic Oscillation favors cold weather in the US when in the negative phase. Now, if the cold air has fled south into our neck of the woods, this means that there is a ridge of high pressure in the Arctic. Should this ridge happen to be close to Greenland, we could also see the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drop into negative territory. This is plausible, considering the two are closely related. In the event the NAO and AO both go into negative territory, the East Coast is in a much better position for big Nor'easters to hit.

This has been proven to possibly be correct, as the NAO has had an unusually prolonged stage of negative values in the past summer, even to this day. The forecasts for the NAO are also still looking fairly negative, further giving life into the possibility that the lack of ice is to blame. Unless we see a rapid build-up of Arctic ice in the next few months, an abundance of cold air in our neck of the woods could very well play out. This, of course, depends on if the other indices in the atmosphere agree.

Andrew

1 Million Page Views Reached

The Weather Centre has broken 1 million page views as of today, September 17, 2012, after 29 months of publishing my thoughts on the weather.

I could never have dreamed of getting this far, and want to THANK YOU for supporting this blog for so many months.

Here's to many more years of weather to come!

Andrew

Hurricane Season Running Above Normal; Atlantic Not Obeying El Nino

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is entering its second half, and already we are above normal for total named storms.

The average number of named storms averages out to roughly 11 storms, encompassing tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. The number of hurricanes overall stands at 6, while annually, major hurricanes strike about 2 times. This year, statistics show that we have had 15 total storms and 14 named storms (there was one unnamed tropical depression). It is only September, and we have passed the 1966-2009 annual total storm count. The number of hurricanes we have had this year is also above normal, with 8 recorded hurricanes thus far. It has been proven to be an active season. But not many expected this. In a way, this could be the Renegade Hurricane Season of 2012. But what made this season so unexpected?

The hot topic of El Nino (excuse the pun) is to blame. In an El Nino, which is defined as the warming of waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, atmospheric winds in the Atlantic turn unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. The lowest number of named storms in the Atlantic actually result from an El Nino. However, as was explained above, this year is not the case. This could very well be the result of the lack of recognition of the El Nino, as was explained in a previous post.

Because this season has been so odd, the confidence of a long range forecast on the rest of the hurricane season is drastically reduced. However, if I were to take an estimate on what may happen, I have a feeling that this unusual activity will continue. Areas of possible development in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean at the time of publishing (uncommon for September tropical development) points to this as well.

Andrew

1 Hour Winter Q-and-A on September 22 at 12:00 PM CT

Keeping with last year, I will be doing an hour-long question-and-answer session on the upcoming winter next Saturday, September 22, at 12:00 PM CT.

This is your opportunity to ask any and all questions relating to the upcoming winter!

Andrew