Monitoring Fall Trends For Winter

It has been shown that one can anticipate some parts of winter if fall trends of precipitation and temperatures are accounted for. Today, we examine what October has brought thus far.

The above image shows the month-to-date departure from normal precipitation for October across the nation. As you can see, the Midwest and Great Lakes have been in the thick of it, with the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northern Plains also getting into some wet spots. On the dry end of the spectrum, the the South Plains and parts of the East Coast reside.

Mother Nature has been sending system after system into the North Central and Northeast regions of the US this month, bringing abundant precipitation to some of those areas. Because we are already in the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) observation period to see what this winter's pattern will be, I find this data to be a fair forecasting method for this winter.

If I were to add this precipitation data into my current thoughts, it would bode quite well in terms of precipitation placement in the nation. However, I do believe that the East Coast will get its fair share, and that this precipitation data is not doing the region justice.

Things are looking up!

Andrew

Special Long Range Lookout: Strong Greenland Block Setting Up

This is a Special Long Range Lookout, made and published on October 19, 2012.

I am monitoring the potential for a very strong Greenland Block to emerge in the next several weeks, as the pattern continues to slip further into a more winterized pattern. But before we get into this potentially significant development, let's review what the Greenland Block is.

The Greenland Block refers to a semi-permanent high pressure system over Greenland. That means that there is a tendency for a high pressure system to form over Greenland repeatedly. This 'Block' in the term Greenland Block is for what happens to the atmosphere when this phenomena hits. The high pressure system develops over Greenland and blocks the atmosphere's traffic of disturbances and ridges from progressing around the world, 'blocking' these systems. The Greenland Block is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation's negative phase. In the NAO negative phase, this block encourages a stormy and cold pattern to emerge over the eastern US.

The chart above is depicting 500mb height anomalies in the 10-11 day forecast range. While many more 'informed' weather folk may know that such long range forecasts have a high chance to fail, this particular image is composed of the 12z GFS Ensemble members averaged out. This significantly strengthen's its argument. The forecast is calling for a very strong Greenland Block to develop over Greenland. At the moment, this would most likely be borderline East Based, which typically benefits the Midwest and Great Lakes for snow and cold.

The GFS Ensembles are shown here individually, with blue areas defining disturbances and red areas showing high pressure. The deeper the color, the stronger its respective atmospheric apparatus is. These ensembles are also valid for the 10-11 day forecast, and are all in unusually good agreement with a strong Greenland Block and stormy pattern over the US. The unusual high confidence in these ensembles leads me to believe one thing...

Winter is being revealed.

Think about it. This whole month, the eastern US has been hit by strong systems, with many areas being above normal in precipitation. If this stormy pattern continues through the month of October, trends show that fall patterns correlate with winter patterns. Thus, such a stormy pattern now may very well induce a stormy winter for the East US. And yes, the LRC does factor in here.

Andrew

NOAA Winter Forecast Challenging To Decipher

The long range prediction branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), released its winter outlook today. Upon analysis, I find it hard to correctly decipher.

The CPC did account for the lack of an El Nino, clearly stated in this quote from the article, which you can find here:

Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years.
“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”

The CPC has indicated that the El Nino is not coming to at the moment. Mike Halpert, deputy director of the NOAA CPC, also indicated that we are 'stalled' in a neutral ENSO situation. Recall that a neutral ENSO scenario presents cold in the North and wet in the East, as is shown below:

During a neutral ENSO winter, the subtropical jet stream is confined to the south while the Polar jet stream gives way and brings arctic air to the Northern US. These two jet streams merge in the Southeast, bringing a wetter than normal area to that region. The South in general is warmer than normal.

However, upon comparison to the typical Neutral ENSO winter and the NOAA forecast, the two are completely opposite. In fact, they are much closer to an El Nino solution, which dictates below normal precipitation in the Northwest and wet conditions along the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Temperatures do also partially resemble an east-based La Nina, which includes a warm West and cool East.

I have always been skeptical of the Climate Prediction Center- I find too many instances of above normal temperatures and/or 'Equal Chances' zones across the nation in their forecasts. Much like The Weather Channel, I have immense respect for the meteorologists at the CPC, but disagree with some of their content.

Personally, I find that there should be a cooler than normal section in the East, as the positive AMO will lead to increased instances of a -NAO/-AO (essential for cold weather in the East). You can find the rest of my winter thoughts at my Final Winter Forecast by clicking here.

Summed up, I disagree with the CPC's outlook. They seem too cautious and flip-flopping on what they want to do as for ENSO stages. Time will indeed tell, but I'm just a bit too skeptical for this forecast.

Andrew

Long Range Snow Possibilities Arising

Models are indicating very long range snow potentials, which can be a precursor to a possible snow event in the future.

While long range forecasts rarely verify, they can offer hints on what eventually happens. For example, if a model were to show a massive hurricane devastating New York 2 weeks out, you wouldn't believe it. Neither would I. However, things like that alert forecasters to keep a general eye out on that timeframe for some form of tropical activity in the general Atlantic Ocean.

If we apply that rule to this situation, I can see the potential for a snow possibility as a massive cool down is predicted about 2 weeks out. I choose to believe the long range cool down theory as the ensembles are trending with it, something taken much more seriously than a single model's forecast.

In short, I could see some part of the nation getting a little of the white stuff. I doubt it will be significant, and probably would hit farther north. Either way, exciting times appear ahead for the central and eastern US!

Andrew

Blowing Dust Causing Problems in Kansas

A body of blowing dust is progressing across the southern Plains at this hour on the edge of a very strong extratropical system in the Midwest.

Satellite imagery shows a swath of blowing dust currently hitting the Plains states, with Kansas and Oklahoma getting the worst of the dust. Many people underestimate the issues blowing dust can cause, so let's review what problems can arise from blowing dust, as small as some may be.

•Asthma is aggravated.
•Elderly people an children's respiratory systems may struggle to handle the foreign contaminants (dust particles)
•Damage to machinery that takes in air from the atmosphere- dust can enter the machine and cause it to malfunction.

All people are advised to stay inside, no matter your presence or lack of medical conditions related to the respiratory system until this passes by, which could take several hours.

Andrew