Potential Great Lakes Snow Update #3

This is the 3rd update to a potential Lower Great Lakes Snow.

I have now expanded this into the Wisconsin area.

So! How's your evening? Or morning? Or lunch break? How is your day so far? Mine's good. Let's get to the weather.

I ran the GFS again. I run it a couple times a day. I decided to analyze the map fully and found the 1000-500mb thickness line. The thickness line is what says snow or rain. Anything below the maximum is snow, anything above is rain. Anything relatively close is a mix or ice.

There is a light-moderate area of precip in the Lower Great Lakes and Wisconsin area below the thickness level and does meet snow requirements. It comes in the wake of an intense low pressure.

The date of this event is November 25th. I know I said there was also one on November 23rd, but that one is dicey. We'll get to it anyhow soon.

Anyways, the November 25th event could last from 00z (6am CDT) to about 00z (6am CDT) Nov. 26th. These timings are very unsure, but the snow could waver from light to moderate. It would likely be lighter as the day goes on.

By the way, I'm looking at the GFS pretty concerned. Remember the super October storm in the Upper Midwest? I'm seeing the low pressure I mentioned earlier at a central pressure of 986mb. That is seriously low. I will deliver an update to the New England area after this Great Lakes update.

But seriously: If that plays out as it looks, the New England area could get whapped with wild wind. The thickness would be low enough, so blizzard conditions could occur.

Now, let's move on to that November 23rd event. As I said, this morning's run was pretty dicey, as was last night's. But, let's run it again.

The GFS is telling that there could be some precip, but it is unsure. The model only covers 6 hour intervals, and it's not revealing that area. So, I'm going to take a guess. I think there will be drizzle and probably a light shower. The front will strangthen as it moves through. However, the thickness will not be enough to support snow flakes in the Lower Great Lakes.

I will monitor it, but I will DEFINITELY monitor the November 25th event. When the model starts to show over and over again of the same precip in an area, it's a bigger than normal chance of precip in that area.

There will definetely be more updates as the time goes on.

Only at The Weather Centre.