We're going start out with some models, preferably the GFS.
GFS---
The GFS is letting the low pressure system slide down a bit farther south than previously thought, enhancing the precip abilities farther away from the GL and closer to the Kentucky Tennessee areas. Despite this, relative humidity will remain very high throughout Chicago into maybe St. Louis.
Thickness would be fine in the GL and even a bit south.
CMC----
The CMC would rather hoist the low up through south Illinois and into Indiana, bringing substantial precip through the lower GL and mainly across the entire East CONUS. (The US.)
RH will be abundant throughout this area.
Thickness shows that the precip would eventually change to snow with significant accumulations possible.
NOGAPS----
The NOGAPS wants this low to take the same track as the CMC, but bring up precip farther through the GL. Thickness for the Lower West GL would be adequate.
Total Accumulation Ensembles----
So, for 12 total precip ensembles:
6 members show the storm mainly striking the Mid-South east in Kentucky Tennessee areas.
4 members show the storm striking the Lower GL.
The other members show the storm not strong enough to make significant precip.
Out of that, I think that it's a tossup between the more western track and the southern track.
Meteogram----
The meteogram shows snow definitely occurring.
The below is a quote from weather.com
Midwest: Snow moves out of the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, intensifying into heavy, wind-driven snow in either the western Great Lakes or mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys Saturday night, continuing into Sunday, depending on the exact track of the surface low. A period of sleet or freezing rain also possible in the Ohio Valley Saturday. Major travel disruption seems likely!
Northeast: Precipitation may start as either snow, sleet or freezing rain Saturday night into early Sunday, mainly inland of I-95. Some icing is possible from western VA into Upstate New York and northern New England. That said, a changeover to rain is expected, particularly near the coast Sunday. However, locations from western New York through the Appalachians may quickly change back to heavy, wind-driven snow later Sunday through early next week. Majortravel disruption possible!
Southeast: Severe weather threat looks limited, due to a lack of warm, moist air penetrating northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Some t-storms may bear watching near the Gulf Coast Saturday, then again late Saturday night into Sunday from the Carolina coast into Florida. More snow is expected for the Smoky Mountains and also possibly parts of Tennessee and Kentucky Sunday into perhaps Monday.
Northeast: Precipitation may start as either snow, sleet or freezing rain Saturday night into early Sunday, mainly inland of I-95. Some icing is possible from western VA into Upstate New York and northern New England. That said, a changeover to rain is expected, particularly near the coast Sunday. However, locations from western New York through the Appalachians may quickly change back to heavy, wind-driven snow later Sunday through early next week. Majortravel disruption possible!
Southeast: Severe weather threat looks limited, due to a lack of warm, moist air penetrating northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Some t-storms may bear watching near the Gulf Coast Saturday, then again late Saturday night into Sunday from the Carolina coast into Florida. More snow is expected for the Smoky Mountains and also possibly parts of Tennessee and Kentucky Sunday into perhaps Monday.
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