MODEL ANALYSIS #1 Feb. 1-3rd storm

The GEM completely went on its own way.

The ECMWF may have gone south just a hair, but some areas' expected QPF (water equivalent of how much snow falls) actually went up.

GFS did trend a bit north, enough to bump up the expected snowfall totals and QPF as well.

NOGAPS is taking the GFS storm track.

NAM is still with the ECMWF storm track.

WRF also takes an ECMWF track.

While the time frame is still too early for the UKMET, early indications are taking an ECMWF track.

The interesting thing is: Although the GFS may seem far south to people in the South Great Lakes right now, a good foot is expected, and only more if it trends north.

MODEL DISCUSSION

-----------------

While the GFS has been the most consistent, I expect the GFS to trend more north and the ECMWF model only a bit south.

With the current set-up, it is now the ECMWF/NAM/WRF/UKMET? against GFS/NOGAPS

The GEM can be discounted due to its odd structure and track.

The GFS has been holding steady, as the ECMWF has.

It's the South 'camp' (tracks) against the North 'camp'.

Which one will break first?

Stay tuned to the Weather Centre for more information.