Recent forecasts have been predicting a changeover in portions of the Great Lakes from Frzg Rain to Rain, but a run of the SREF somewhat objects to this.
Below is the SREF take on the chance for freezing rain turning into rain.
In the image around one day from now, we see a somewhat elevated risk of freezing rain turning into rain. The most risk centered around the Wisconsin/Illinois border.
3 hours later, the probability of freezing rain into rain has gone down and is much less disorganized. That leads to thinking that changeover may not be as predominant as thought.
Another 3 hours further, the risk for changeover continues but is more disorganized and now practically nonexistent.
These images are leading me to believe that the GFS model is incorrect. The SREF handled the Blizzard of 2011 well, as well as the ECMWF.
But the SREF has handled all storms in short-range quite well, so there is much reasoning behind new thinking.
Current thinking by The Weather Centre is the following:
-CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL NOT BE AS DOMINANT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
-WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MORE COMMON.
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