Feb. 8 Morning Model Report

In the event that someone needs a model report at any given time, this is where they are available.

REPORT

-----------

ECMWF and UKMET are on the same track, but the ECMWF appears to possibly bring the high pressure from Canada down a bit stronger than the UKMET.

The GEM is definitely more aggressive with the high pressure than the UKMET, possibly more than the ECMWF as well. By hour 144, GEM keeps high pressure in control of US while ECMWF has already torn them out of the forecast by then.

The NOGAPS appears less aggressive than the GEM. NOGAPS does pull out the high pressure areas by hour 144, but also appears to let the US have more potential for low pressure development.

The GFS appears to want to be faster with the high pressure, but sticks with a less aggressive solution of the high pressure as it moves south. By hour 144, the GFS is definitely the model with the most potential for low pressure development, as several low pressures fly freely, backing the high pressures into the West US. However, 12 hours later, those low pressures are eliminated, going along with one model in that situation.

CONCLUSION:

Will keep ECMWF/GFS solution for how strong the high pressure will be, will take ECMWF solution of when it arrives. NOGAPS appears to be a good middle point for when the high pressures dissipate.