March 16 Forecast Discussion

FORECAST DISCUSSION

This image is the 18z GFS image 24 hours out.

The warm up has started across the Plains extending into the Midwest. As a strong low pressure area moves east across south Canada, the transport area for the warm flow will follow the low pressure system east.

Strong influx of warm air will continue, mainly in Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and even into Illinois. This is the area where the advection is predicted to be the strongest.

As the warm air advection moves east, windy conditions can be expected. Tight isobars indicate the development of gusty winds on the surface, as well as turbulence up in the air.

High pressure just offshore of the Carolinas will prohibit significant warming in that area by the coast extending a bit west. The warm air transport will likely shove this high pressure out to sea as the transport moves into New England.

This warm up will die one of a few ways.

Situation 1 (Most Likely): The Low pressure system pulling the warm front along will become too far away from the Gulf air, and that Gulf air will drop back south.

Situation 2: High pressure will drop down from Canada and suppress the warm air transport that will eventually move south.

Based on a few other images further into the future, it does appear Situation 1 is quite likely in some sense.

In other news, high pressure in the Northwest will also keep a pool of cold air in place as the warm air moves off.

Another Forecast Discussion will be issued tomorrow.