As I have been saying for the last day or two, there is interest in yet another storm system initiating storms in the Midwest. The set-up could be all to similar to just last Sunday.
However, in this update, there are some changes.
1. Timing will be earlier in the day.
2. Temperatures will be warmer.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS
The above image is an HPC map indicating positions of fronts around noon or so CDT. The warm front will be lifting more north, ushering in warmer air to the Midwest. Right on the heels of that will be a cold front, bringing another squall line threat. Again, tornadoes appear to be a potential risk.
TORNADO RISK
The above is the significant tornado risk for this event. Immediately I am directed to the assumption this will be a squall line event. Anyhow, the image depicts a risk area within the Illinois region yet again. With parameters this high while this far out is concerning me. I will watch this develop.
Of greater concern is this image only 6 hours earlier, depicting a potentially devastating tornado event in the South. While tornadoes are impossible to predict at best, this is definitely raising my eyebrows.
WIND SHEAR
This image is of wind shear at about 500 millibars. At this level, wind shear is becoming important for tornadoes to form. Either way, the presence of such intense wind shear is a concerning factor, indicating that these storms could be accompanied by damaging winds and tornadic activity.
THE JET STREAM
This image of the jet stream indicates a little bit of divergence on the right side of the jet stream. We a smaller, weaker jet stream, called a jet branch, stretching from the actual jet stream. This divergence means air is rising on a big scale. A more defined jet branch will exist in the South 6 hours earlier, leading to the assumption of heavy rain potential.
SUMMARY
This storm system definitely has potential, possibly even more than last Sunday's system.
1. The cap will be stronger.
2. Temperatures will be warmer.
3. The system as a whole will be stronger.
However, in this update, there are some changes.
1. Timing will be earlier in the day.
2. Temperatures will be warmer.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS
These storms will be influenced by a strong cap over the area. As a warm front lifts northward, this cap will set up, blocking any storm development until the cold front comes in and breaks the cap, initiating storms.
TIMING
TORNADO RISK
Of greater concern is this image only 6 hours earlier, depicting a potentially devastating tornado event in the South. While tornadoes are impossible to predict at best, this is definitely raising my eyebrows.
WIND SHEAR
THE JET STREAM
SUMMARY
This storm system definitely has potential, possibly even more than last Sunday's system.
1. The cap will be stronger.
2. Temperatures will be warmer.
3. The system as a whole will be stronger.
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