May 14 Severe Weather

A practically stationary upper low centered over the Ohio Valley will provide cyclonic flow, inducing thunderstorms. However, recently in the last couple of days, rounds of convection have stabilized the atmosphere to a point where an outbreak is not expected.
Morning visible satellite shows IND/OH/KY/WV covered by a stretch of clouds. This will limit convection to possibly the entire show. However, areas that see broken sun will quickly be destabilized. Those areas are where the most intense thunderstorms can be expected.
However, updrafts can be expected in areas with the most diabatic heating. Those stronger storms will have a primary hail threat.

From the Carolinas into Georgia, the cold front is currently located around Tennessee and progressing eastward. All models are agreeing on thunderstorms developing ahead of this front. This would happen in the early afternoon hours. At this time, it appears that these storms will be less powerful than yesterday's round, but there is still potential for stronger storms with a primary localized damaging wind and hail threat.

In the Northwest, CAPE values of 1000 j/kg and above combined with height falls will initiate some storms. The strongest will be capable of damaging winds and hail.

Today's Tornado Threat

Today's Damaging Wind Threat

Today's Hail Threat