Sunday, May 22, 2011

May 22 Public Severe Weather Outlook (640 am)


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
   OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          EASTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA
          WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
          SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
          NORTHEAST MISSOURI
          WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
   
   A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM CONTAINING STRONG JET STREAM WINDS NOW
   OVER NEBRASKA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
   TODAY...AND INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
   
   AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD
   NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI INTO MUCH OF IOWA...ILLINOIS...WISCONSIN
   AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. 
   
   A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP
   EAST ACROSS THOSE STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL SERVE AS
   A FOCUS FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER
   DESTABILIZES THE REGION.
   
   THE COMBINATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH WIND PROFILES THAT WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION MAY YIELD
A FEW TORNADOES...ONE OR
TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...IN ADDITION 
TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND.
   
   WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT 
SHOULD EXIST DURING THE MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE MID 
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...A
MORE LIMITED SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
   STORMS MERGE INTO A LINE AND CONTINUE
EAST TOWARD INDIANA AND LOWER
   MICHIGAN.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE 
MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA 
ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO 
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...
WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
   TODAY.

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