Saturday, May 7, 2011

May 9-11 Severe Weather Threat: Major Instability Possible (Issued May 7)

TERMS TO KNOW
CAPE- A measure of instability. Values over 2000 j/kg are considered unstable. Values over 4000 are considered extremely unstable and very dangerous.

Good evening, everyone! I've just been running over the ensembles from the GFS, which is the most reliable, possibly even more reliable than the models themselves.
Anyways, the GFS put out an alarming statistic for the severe weather event May 9-11.
This is the threat for severe weather at 7 am CDT May 10.
The image above defines the potential for values over 4000 j/kg CAPE values. There is a very alarming 70-80% chance of over 4000 j/kg of CAPE in Oklahoma.
We will watch this event unfolding, and be sure to turn to The Weather Centre for all your breaking severe weather.

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