This morning, we reported to you a system that could have potential for brief tropical cyclone formation. We are here to report that the development did not occur, and there is now a much lower chance of tropical cyclone formation.
Below is satellite imagery of the Atlantic.
The system to the west of Florida is the system that had been catching our eye earlier today. The system moved over Florida as a low pressure system only. It now has a 10% chance for tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours.
We are watching another system down by Central America. That area also has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. However, the NHC has indicated that more favorable conditions for development are possible beyond the 48 hour period.
We will be closely watching that system.
However, let's get back to the first system near Florida.
There is also the intensity ensemble forecast for this system below.
It looks like this system will be more of a simple low pressure system, although I will not rule out the potential for a tropical depression to come out of the system.
We will be closely watching the second system mentioned in this post closely, as the system will be stationary and could become a tropical cyclone going into this weekend.
Below is satellite imagery of the Atlantic.
We are watching another system down by Central America. That area also has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. However, the NHC has indicated that more favorable conditions for development are possible beyond the 48 hour period.
We will be closely watching that system.
However, let's get back to the first system near Florida.
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The latest ensemble suite for this system is more southerly, with the general consensus to take the system across the Gulf of Mexico and potentially into Mexico itself. While you may be thinking that the Gulf of Mexico is perfect for tropical cyclone formation, it just isn't for this system. That's the plain and simple of it.There is also the intensity ensemble forecast for this system below.
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While the earlier ensembles had been showing a minimum tropical storm strength, the ensembles are more cautious at this point, but still thinking that a partial consensus will be for a tropical storm to form. One aggressive model takes the system into a Category 1 hurricane. However, I do not believe that will happen.It looks like this system will be more of a simple low pressure system, although I will not rule out the potential for a tropical depression to come out of the system.
We will be closely watching the second system mentioned in this post closely, as the system will be stationary and could become a tropical cyclone going into this weekend.
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