There is a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours for a system to the east of Central America.
A large and disorganized area of thunderstorms has been separated into two sections: lowest pressure and most intense thunderstorms. There is a chance for development before upper level winds turn unfavorable.
Regardless of if this storm develops, there is now a real threat of this system hitting land, with nearly all models pointing towards a direct hit on the United States. However, there is a very wide spread in where this hit could occur, and we will not focus in on where the center of that spread is.
Intensity forecasts aren't impressive with this system. While most models give this storm tropical storm status, there is a very wide spread before that happens, and all the models have different solutions. I have decided that a fairly good solution would be to leave this system just below tropical storm status.
This system has a chance at development, but that's about it. We will keep you up to date with the latest weather information on this system.
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