Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the Caribbean as expected. Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted for many Caribbean islands, including Haiti and surrounding regions.
We at The Weather Centre believe Emily is a very real threat to Florida and areas west. We believe this because, now that Emily has formed inside the Caribbean region, it becomes unlikely that the storm will take a sharp turn to the east and fire out to the Atlantic. Because the above image is a likely output, we advise all residents in the state of Florida and states to the west to monitor this situation.
Models from this evening's 0z run are definitely taking a westward turn from the last several runs. There remains a potential for the storm to actually miss Florida and go out to sea as depicted in the beige dashed line, but that particular model is not considered a trust-worthy model, so we will not mind that.
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