12z GFS shows 10 inches of snow for New York October 29

Today's 12z GFS is indicating snow of 10 inches to fall on New York state on the October 29 period. It looks like this is panning out as a result of several days of model runs showing this solution. If you will remember, back on October 16, we showed the GFS projecting over 2 feet of snow for the region in the Northeast (click here for the post). While I had stated I had low confidence in that happening, I was at that time concerned that the GFS was latching on to a trend, and it appears that is what the GFS has done. I project between 2-12 inches for New York on this Oct. 29-30 period where snowfall is projected at this time to occur. The reason for the big spread in amounts is to account for the fact that the time period of the potential event is still 6 days out, leaving too much room for error to chance a closer range in snowfall amounts.