A broad low forecast to be in the region outlined above could develop some tropical characteristics and affect the area outlined and possibly up the East Coast. It remains possible this will not happen, but with each model run showing the system developing, chances do rise that it will occur.
This is the latest 12z ECMWF model run that shows a strong low pressure area affecting the East Coast 216 hours out. This is outside the 5 day time frame, which is basically the time when the forecast is usually taken as shown, but at hour 216, this is bound to change in some way. We just don't know how.
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