Long-Range Forecaster: Chances of Tropical System in Caribbean "More likely than not"

The Long-Range Forecaster from here at The Weather Centre is indicating that the chances of a tropical system in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico before hurricane season ends is 'more likely than not'. He believes this because of the traditionally more active component of October in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean regions, and because the warmer waters are more centered in the Gulf of Mexico region. "The reason we aren't seeing tropical systems form in the Caribbean is because of cooler than average water temperatures in that area. However, if a system can get into the Gulf of Mexico, that's where the real development would occur. Lee was an example, but he was a bad and poorly-organized example."