This year's Thanksgiving is projected to be a warm one across the country. It appears the Northern US will be hit with especially warm temperatures, with 850mb temperature anomalies of as high as 15 degrees above normal for that region. The only place of the country that may have potential for cooler than normal temperatures would be the extreme southwest US. The rest of the country will likely experience normal temperatures, or more likely, warmer than normal temperatures.
6 comments:
The fact that you used the GFS as verification of a warmer than normal Thanksgiving this far out tells me everything I need to know regarding the veracity of your weather forecasts. In other words, I won't be coming back to this site for any serious weather information.
Hello Ron Kelly.Don't you like the way they forecast?They try their best.Only mother nature has the final say what is going to happen this upcoming winter.As for the computer models,etc.who knows how accurate they really are.Here is my email address=PAULOCSAK@WIFI7.COM.Send me an email,well discuss it.
Ron Kelley- If you would like some more proof, here it is: PNA will remain negative, leading to a lack of cold weather. NAO will not be in a serious phase for any cold weather. The 12z ECMWF also shows a large area of warm air in the United States. The EPO will be in a massive positive phase, meaning additional warm temperatures over the north US. The WPO will also be positive for the time period, leading to again above normal temperatures over the US.
If you will not be coming here for serious forecasts, I don't know how 'serious' you want it. We use MUCH MUCH more than just the GFS to determine anything. You can refer to our detailed posts of the PNA/EPO/NAO in our winter forecasts, recent posts.
It's not my decision if you want to view my site, but I don't know how serious you want things.
Hello Andrew.I personally think you do an excellent job in forecasting!! This Ron Kelly needs to chill out.
While I appreciate your hard work my opinion of how you came to your conclusion was justified, the GFS has been notorious for not catching pattern changes and storms 4 - 7 days away. While I may have been harse in my saying you are not serious about your weather I still stand by my opinion of using a certain model to show examples of weather, by the way, muy locate weather is forecasting 46 degrees on Thanksgiving day and perhaps some rain/snow. There is growing concern that the N.E. may receive snow above I-80.
Today's 12z ECMWF gives snow to the Maine mountains, no longer showing heavy lake effect snow. The teleconnections just aren't right for a snowstorm, and the GFS shows little snow for the area in question. For the certain model issue, I have previously stated my examples of the teleconnections.
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