Saturday, December 31, 2011

Potentially Major Winter Storm Shown on ECMWF

Hour 192 of 12z ECMWF
Here, we see two low pressure systems- a cutoff low in the Southwest as well as another system moving onshore Canada. As of right now, they appear to be 2 separate storm systems.
Hour 216 of 12z ECMWF
At hour 216, we are seeing the same two low pressure systems moving eastward. It looks like the cutoff low may be getting some energy from the Gulf, and I could see a snowstorm hitting Missouri and states to the west of Missouri. The other disturbance in Canada continues to move east.
Hour 240 of 12z ECMWF
At hour 240, we are seeing some major phasing occur in the Western Great Lakes, which may indicate a major winter storm could hit the far Northern Midwest areas into Canada.

14 comments:

LJ said...

We'll have to wait and see what happens.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Just a long shot guess.On the hour 216 storm if it would verify and produce snow in Missouri & states to the west,where do you see it tracking from there?

Andrew said...

Mike: As I said on the hour 240 image, it will be phasing in the Upper Midwest, which is where the two systems should meet. I probably isn't interpret that right in the post.

Andrew said...

*I probably didn't interpret that right in the post.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello LJ.If your here,check your email.I sent a link to the instantweathermaps.com site where you were asking about the site.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.So then the storm would not move into the Ohio valley or northeast.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Do you think we could make a storm like the 2003 Presidents Day Blizzard? This storm i recived about a foot of snow.Just kidding.I still have newspaper clippings from this storm.

Anonymous said...

when would this happen?

Andrew said...

To all: The ECMWF is now showing a possible phasing in the northeast. We are looking into it and comparing this with the weather indices.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Could this possible phasing mean that there could be some storms on the horizon for the Ohio valley and northeast?

Andrew said...

No- the phasing only means that 2 storms are coming together- it doesn't spell anything for the long range.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Sorry for the mis-understanding.I'm following the things your posting on facebook concerning the polar vortex and the models coming together for an colder pattern change by mid-Jan.Hopefully we can start seeing some snow storms for the Ohio Valley and east.You would think this would eventually happen considering all the rain we've been getting.

Andrew said...

It's alright. I myself am wondering if it means anything, especially as the 12z ECMWF has shown a monster trough in Asia which could mean a stormier pattern for the US.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew,Hopefully monster trough in Asia does bring a stormier pattern to the US.If this does happen,would we start to see more storms with snow instead of rain.