It's getting pretty frustrating to see the teleconnections being so unbelievably stubborn right now. In all honesty, if this continues, our winter forecast will have to be revised. Here's the latest.
NAO
The NAO is mocking snow lovers with a bouncing ball-like forecast. We see the ensembles pretending to go towards negative territory but then moving positive again, like a bouncing ball. Until the NAO can actually go negative, you won't be seeing huge snows anytime soon.
AO
Here's the gist of the AO: If it goes negative, you can expect temperatures to go down. If it's positive, the cold air won't be coming near the country soon. We see the AO ensembles taunting us with nosediving towards negative, but then shooting up positive again in defiance. This is not a good recipe for winter.
Summary
This is a really horrible batch of teleconnections we have here. Until these two indices above go negative, winter will keep stalling. It can only stall for so long before winter ends.
We don't want to vent about how horrible this is, so we are keeping this post to a minimum, explanation-wise.
NAO
AO
Summary
This is a really horrible batch of teleconnections we have here. Until these two indices above go negative, winter will keep stalling. It can only stall for so long before winter ends.
We don't want to vent about how horrible this is, so we are keeping this post to a minimum, explanation-wise.
11 comments:
I see that in between the first and the sixteenth the line goes below negative two times.
If it were to change what would south east Michigans winter be like then
AJ: It hits the neutral line rather than go negative. Go figure. ;)
Anonymous: SEMI would start up with its winter, as would the rest of the eastern US.
It better not be like this the whole winter.The only reason I like winter is because of winter storms.
Agreed.
Well then what type of weather will SEMI have then
It depends on when winter starts up.
Well right now in Detroit we have 1 inch of snow and more coming
Do you think Indiana will even get a storm with more than 5 inches accumulation? The normal time for the first inch or two of accumulation was 14 days ago.
AJ: I am becoming increasingly worried about the lack of snow. However, we must all bear in mind that winters will not for sure turn out like climatology says. Otherwise, what's the use of winter forecasting? ;) If this snow drought does continue, however, an unplanned revision to our winter forecast is possible.
You gotta love it. No endless blackouts, no shoveling, no hours- long commutes, no budget-busting fuel bills. Bring it on!
Post a Comment