Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Actual Significant Stratospheric Warming Occurring at 1mb-30mb

1mb
2mb
5mb
10mb
30mb
There is some actual significant stratospheric warming occurring right now. You can see just how high the 1mb, 2mb, 5mb levels have risen, with the 1mb, 2mb levels getting quite close to the 'maximum' level of the past few decades.
What does this mean? A pattern change, of course! When you get significant warming like this (not like the other little 'bumps' of warming- this is the real deal), there's a confident assessment that the pattern will be changing. We just need to have this warming propagate down to the lower levels of the stratosphere, where some more influence matters.
We will have more information on this as it develops!

16 comments:

AJ said...

THANK GOD!!Also thank you for updating me on this.

Andrew said...

The pattern change should take effect soon. Lets hope it does change

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.This is teriffic news.Let's hope when it does change,it will bring the heavy snow your predicting for my area.I still truly believe this can still happen considering all the rain we had in Ohio.The thing is,i always believe never give up on hope!!

peterbilt5000 said...

What type of a time frame are we talking about here?

Are we looking at just bigger storms, or a series of clipper type systems bringing lesser amount?

msilva said...

so is the pattern good for a real winter comimg or is it going to get warmer and stay that way?

Andrew said...

Peterbilt: This is for Mid January onward.

Msilva: It will be gettiNg colder and snowier.

AJ said...

This is 10 days out but I noticed on the January 12 there is the chance for heavy snow and strong winds in the midwest and great lakes.I was freqently checking the models this morning and personaly most of the models didn't look like it was going to snow.They probably have changed since then but was just wondering if you could tell me you opinions about this.This is a very important qestion to me because it is probably going to start to cool down around then.I can't check the models right now because this computer I am using is very slow all the sudden and the models won't apear.I jope this happens and I can't wait for you to answer.Thank you for all you have done it all hase been very fun to here the correct weather and not the close-enough weather.I can't wait for tornado season to come!MORE ACTION!Again thank you very much and happy 2012. AJ

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello AJ.What particular models were you checking?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.This goes with AJ'S comment.Maybe the ECMWF model along with others are seeing the storm you posted about coming in the picture again you posted about this past Sunday.

Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew, Great blog site. I had a question for you. When do you think the big snows will start to really get going in the Great Lake region? Thank Justin.

peterbilt5000 said...

I'm not looking for "Big Snow", just any plowable snow at this point.

Andrew said...

AJ: I'm not surprised the models are showing that- the GFS ensembles I JUST checked out are showing a much stormier pattern for the East US. That includes the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest, and maybe the Southeast.

Mike: It is very possible as we enter into a stormy period.

Justin: The Great Lakes will get their snow soon enough. I am confident in that aspect.

peterbilt5000: Plowable snow is also quite possible.

AJ said...

Hello Mike.I used four models.1 of them showed possible accumulating snow.I used my typical models for snow wich would be ECMWF ensembles,ECMWF,GFS,and GFS ensemble.By the way you can call me Aran Jacobs.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Aran Jacobs.Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Honestly this winter is just depressing... I have never seen multiple 45+ degree days in January here in Wisconsin as is projected for the next 4-5 days... this is unreal... With all these global warming effects, is this just the start of what will be the norm as far as winters go for years to come?

Sincerely,
One massively depressed snowmobiler

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Check out the post I published last night. As for your question on winters, no- there are indications that 2012-2013 will be very nasty.