The 12z ECMWF is showing a scenario in which a cutoff low develops in the Southwest, travels through Texas, and moves east-northeast from there, which could make for a snowstorm in the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley.
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| Hour 192 |
At hour 192, we are seeing the cutoff low in the Four Corners region as shown in the 500mb geopotential height maps. At this point, there's not much to look for, other than seeing a squished east US with a ridge in the southern region of North America and a disturbance somewhere in the Northeast or farther north.
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| Hour 216 |
At hour 216, we are seeing the system strengthening as per deepening geopotential heights on the map above. We are still seeing a ridge signature in the Southeast, which could play a crucial role in potentially moving the storm system to the north, which would in turn affect the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Plains.
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| Hour 240 |
At hour 240, the ridge in the Southeast is still present, which should bump the system north, but because the system is so strong, the supposed bump would be small as the system would be trying to barrel through the ridge. If this were to turn out, states such as Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois could be affected with some snow if temperatures are below freezing. Because this is the maximum timeframe that is shown for the ECMWF, we cannot show you any more. We will continue updating you on this system as it develops.
17 comments:
Hello Andrew.Could this storm if it does verify eventually affect my area in Ohio with snow?I'm in holmes county.This looks kind of promising if it does come to life.
When is this for?
Mike: It would indeed be an interesting event for your area if it verified.
Anonymous: About 10 days out.
Hello Andrew.Thanks.The snowbelt north of me is supposed to get HAMMERED with 10"-16" of snow from Mon.-Tue.This is basically east of Cleveland.About the possible storm,are you going to keep updating the progress of it?I'm excited to see if it moves south of me along the Ohio River.Do you think a track like this would be possible if indeed it does form?
I am closely watching the potential for a storm. As for the track, if this works out, let's just say you will be in, or fairly close to, the 'sweet spot'.
Hello Andrew.The "SWEET SPOT"is a good place to be in when a storm comes,right?
Hello Andrew.This goes with the post i just wrote.Is the ECMWF model more accurate then the GFS?
Yes on both counts.
Andrew I was wondering do you know a link to a website that tracks NAO like that has up to a 14 day forcast
Where do you think the most snow would fall at this point?
Eddie: Here's one of the bookmarks i have in the back of my pocket that's done me good: http://policlimate.com/weather/oscillation.html
Anonymous: With this run of the ECMWF shown, the states I mentioned would get the most activity.
Hello Andrew.I'm watching the posts your putting on the left hand side of your weather centre home page.I notice the major trough that your thinking might set up.Do you think any storms could form if this would occur?Also,what areas would be effected if so?
Hello Andrew.If you get some free time,could you check out the following site.CIRRUSWEATHER.COM.They posted a map of snowstorms that may between Jan.09-25 time frame.I don't know how accurate this is.They also outlined the areas that would be effected.I was wondering what your thoughts are on this.Also,they have an article on it.Thanks.
For your first comment: The northeast would be affected. Your area probably would not be affected too much.
For your second comment: The original map was made by mister Joe Bastardi, former chief long range forecaster at Accuweather, and replicated by Cirrus Weather. JB, as he's called, did not give a reason on his twitter feed where he put the map, but likely did put a reason on the website where he works for: Weatherbell.
Hello Andrew.So do you see this of any importance or not for snowstorms?
Hi Andrew.I just seen this photo on Joe's twitter page.I remember watching Joe on accuweather.com.I always wondered why he left there.
This is very important. We are issuing about it at 4:00 PM CST.
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