The clipper will be coming down quickly, so the system in itself will be a quick one-two punch before moving out. However, despite its quickness, the system will be able to put down potentially over 6 inches in some spots. The map says isolated 10-14 inches, but this was biased off of the 12z GFS as the ECMWF is dramatically different. We like to stick with trends.
What is clear, however, is the chance for ice. We have inserted the potential for a tenth of an inch of ice in Central Ohio, Central Indiana and North Illinois. We have low confidence in ice amounts, so this is a general 'first step' for the ice forecasts.
This system will be sampled thursday into friday, meaning that will be the first time that the models have actual upper air data to work with, therefore improving their accuracy of their forecasts, as well as ours.
**Something that may happen is the potential for phasing of this clipper and another system coming from the south. If this is to happen, we may see drastically different results than this map. We will keep a close eye on this situation**
By the way, this is the introduction of our new winter weather accumulation forecast map.
EDIT: We looked back and found the ECMWF to have similar snowfalls as depicted on our graphic. Sorry for the wrong information.
23 comments:
10-14 for a clipper. That's a little extreme.
The new winter weather accumulation map looks nice, Andrew. Do you think Belvidere, IL could get the isolated 10-14 inches of snow? Thanks.
This funny due to the fact not even any forecaster in ohio say a thing about this. They say nothing MAJOR only a few flakes in the area. Good try though. Just not happening.
Hi Andrew.Looks like i'll be be slipping & a slidding in eastern Ohio.HAHA.Just kidding andrew.
Anonymous #1: This is what we call a 'special case'. More will contribute than just the clipper.
LJ: At this point, everything is still on the table, but N. IL is definitely looking good at this point.
Anonymous #2: You are entitled to your opinion, but as of right now i see no reason to call it off. Typically, TV meteorologists are conservative, so they always downplay totals.
Mike: There is a chance for snow to come south into your area. I would keep an eye on this.
could snow totals go 3+inches and maybe slip near 6inches in detroit?
You have shown that you like to go with the very high end totals for the Chicago regions. You realize you are way higher than anyone right now. 6 inches seems max for Chicago now. 10-14? LOL
Hello Andrew.I'm sure hoping this Feb.that there will be more storms going under ohio.These are the storms that give me heavy snow.Not these northerly systyms.
Hello Andrew.The perfect snow maker for me would be a PANHANDLE HOOK.It would need to travel through Kentucky,West Virginia,then hook up through Pittsburgh Pa.This is a true snowstorm for me.Now this is the perfect system snow for me.
Eddie: They would at this point.
Anonymous #1: http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_snow_usa_20.png
EDIT to Anonymous #1:
http://policlimate.com/weather
/current/gfs_snow_usa_20.png
Thanks Andrew. Looks like next Tuesday has some watching to be done, especially with the temperatures around freezing.
would this affect nyc
did the snow falls maps change again
Also watch for the Thurs. clipper. Expect a coating all the way down to DE. For the FRI night Sat. storm it may be slightly further south. Do not draw conclusions until Friday morning. Computer models are not handling this storm very well. The big one is in February.
What are the chances of this system sliding farther south?
Anonymous #1: Possibly.
Anonymous #2: Yes.
Anonymous #3: Yes- sampling occurs Friday.
Kyle: We cannot determine that right now. We will try to tomorrow.
The chances of the Saturday storm are 50% at this time. Forecasters will not have a very good grip on this storm until Thusday at the earliest. Certainly watch this storm if you live in the Mid Atlantic or Northeast. If the high to the north is stronger or the storm is weaker, the storm will be further south.
50% of moving further south. my error.
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copy paste SSW has started big time again!!!! scroll down to se post on it
The latest Gfs handles the storm even loonier than before! I want the Euro to come in at the same time the Gfs comes in. February looks much better than January. It is still indeed possible that the storm tracks further south. The storm track will be significant in regards to precip type. Keep updated!!! Andrew, well done. you are a good meteorologist.
Anonymous #1: They were certainly enhanced with the 0z suite of models.
Eddie: It does not appear to be 'significant' but is definitely a substantial warming event.
Anonymous #2: I share the same ideas you do. Thank you for the kind words.
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