Here we have the stratospheric temperatures at the 5mb level. We can see a sharp spike in the past as well as a more recent, but more subtle, warming event. Whenever we get these times of stratospheric warming, we want to see the warming propagate (shift) down to the lower levels of the stratosphere. And in this case, that just happened.
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| 70mb temperatures |
Stratospheric temperatures at 70mb have spiked with this latest warming in the stratosphere. This is indeed an encouraging sign that the atmosphere may be getting tired of the continuous cold in the Poles and warm in the US. If we can see another Significant Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event (of which there has been chatter about one just over the horizon) propagate to the 70mb level, there is an increased risk of the pattern changing.
The thing is, however, if we get a SSW to happen, it would still take a good 2-4 weeks for the effects to even begin. That would mean February would be a virtual scratch. But luckily the stratosphere isn't the only variable we see to incite pattern shifts.
9 comments:
Hey Andrew, So with all this findings. What does this mean for the current weather pattern in which we seem to be stuck in?
is this the warming event right now that we need to keep the polar vortex out of alaska and does the nao go negative by feb
Anonymous: The pattern is trying to change. We know that much. But the deal is how the warming is cooling back down rather than staying warm.
Eddie: This is not the big warming, but it is a first step. The NAO should crumble by FEB, yes.
will it crumble at the beg. of feb.?why does this get postponed so many times!!!!!
Anonymous: It has been postponed as the supposed things that would have changed the pattern turned out to underperform. The NAO would likely start to trend negative starting in the first week or two of february.
I myself & many others thought the pattern change was coming back in the beginning of January . Models were over running with our false hope. This time around I am seeing the same thing 300+hrs out. I live 50 miles west of DC and I know for a fact only having 0.6" of snow this year can not be the only snow we get. Never have we ever been shut out during La Nina winter. 1972-1973 was 0.5" & 1997-1998 0.5" of snow buy those were strong El Ninos. I see this time the teleconnections going good at the end of January going into February. DC will get all of it's snow in 1 or 2 storms. "Mark my words" on that one. Even though February are usually low in snow during La Ninas, but this year it will be different. Hang on we are all going on a wild ride in February.
bweather: I share your thoughts with the February thought- especially that it will be a turbulent time for the atmosphere.
I think the average snow fall in Kansas City is 18 to 20 inches. To date we have had .02 inches. I am in the snow removal business and I hope things change soon. Our lowest snow fall for a winter is 4.5 inches. What are your thoughts of Feb-March snows in Kansas City?
I believe your plowing business will be back in business soon enough. While this is a bad winter, i don't believe it will be the worst.
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