Thursday, March 15, 2012

Info on TRIAD Tornado Model

As mentioned on the Facebook page, I have added a key and indicated that a new forecast will be issued once a day. The forecasts will be issued at 4:00 PM CDT on weekdays, with TBD times on weekends.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

NAO is Forecast to go negative.Does that mean snow storms for the East Coast.

ERN WX said...

Anonymous unfortunately I think it is too little too late. Next year will be better.

Alice McDonald said...

I have a general question. As we actually move into spring, will the strongest tornado threat still be in the usual areas of the country? Or could that be different this year due to the mild winter and now record breaking temps for part of the Midwest? Just curious as to what to expect into summer. As always, thanks.

ERN WX said...

Hail producing tstms are everywhere. Even a tornado warning is out in MI. Wish I was storm chasing in that area today.

ERN WX said...

Hello, Andrew. What model blend do you generally use for forecasting? I generally use an ECMWF/GFS/ and slight CMC blend. However, I have done some forecasts just using the GEFS/UKMET blend! When the Euro and Gfs go bonkers I do that. For the Sun outbreak I will be available and ready to track some storms. Mon I will be working but I'll be tracking the storms anyway. Folks, the outbreak for Sunday looks bad. Keep an eye on the weather. The Weather Centre is a great place to stay updated.

Andrew said...

Alice: I'm thinking the usual areas and probably mostly south with the way the jet stream is playing out at this point in time.

Eastern WX: A GFS/NAM is usually my favored blend, but long range, I go for a ECMWF/GFS blend, more biased on the ECMWF. For severe weather and more short range situations, I also like to get a taste of the SREF in my forecasts.