 |
| Overall Outlook |
 |
| Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point |
A strong, amplified 300mb jet stream will be pushing eastward, adding a lot of energy to the system responsible for this event. The system will be up near Nebraska. Increasing the system strength increases the surrounding wind field, thus increasing rotation and instability potentials. The storms will begin when the dryline begins to shift east to try and escape the oncoming cold front from the west (which will not happen). With up to 3000 j/kg of instability and over 3 on the EHI index, expect storms that form to quickly become tornadic.
Initiation, or the initial occurrence, of these storms has been sort of a gray area in recent days. Here is the latest initiation graphic from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)'s personal WRF model.
I have circled the area where the strongest storms are expected to be at 7:00 PM CDT tonight. Now, this is what I see as the initialization of strong to severe storms. But see below's actual initiation graphic.
Here is my tornado graphic.
 |
| Blue: Low risk for tornadoes Dark blue: Moderate risk- a few weak tornadoes Purple: Substantial risk- many weak-moderate tornadoes Green: Dangerous risk- several strong tornadoes expected |
11 comments:
I know for a fact that we will have many deaths if they don't hear the tornado warning.A PDS tornado watch will probably be issued.We will be seeing a lot of those new tornado warnings.
The new tornado warnings hopefully will be taken more seriously. Let's hope that people have heeded the warnings about this dangerous situation.
A very large high risk area is in place. I expect a very catastrophic outbreak. There will be tornadoes that will completely destroy WHOLE towns. In addition to tornadoes, expect very large hail (baseball sized and larger), winds in excess of 80 mph, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. The high risk area is huge.
Hey Andrew, it's that waiting-to-be spotter from Wichita. Now the seperate high risks are congealed but the 45% hasn't been stretched. Bad news is the 30% stretches from Norman to that 45% and also I don't think March 2 had a 45%. I am salvaging in my home for supplies of course to prepare. This outlook has been been difficult however compared to March 2. Still better to be safe than dead (sorry is out of equation when life is in the balance). I am very optimistic about people in the worst case scenario because the Plains people have many awareness advantages against storms that people elsewhere may not have. I will be fine!
Anonymous, take care of yourself!!! This is one nasty outbreak. I think they only went with a 30% risk of tornadoes with the March outbreak. I have been out in your area storm chasing before. Most of the people prepare well ahead of impending danger.
I sometimes wonder why I don't move to the Midwest. The East Coast has been so boring this year.
Hello...i know this will be a deadly outbreak?i been living the southern plains for 6 years now....im still not used to tornados...they are so scary and the tornados sirens freak me out.........being from louisiana we rarely see them...everybody be safe and prepared...
Mesoscale Discussion for the Texas panhandle, the Oklahoma panhandle, and western Kansas. A tornado watch is likely. Storm initiation might be going on.
Thanks ERN WX! It's 10:10 AM and the sun is trying to come out. The sun is the trigger and key.
Starting at 11 central, turn on your NOAA weather radios.
Instability rising.
Post a Comment