A strong storm system is currently in the Gulf of Mexico making its way east, where showers and storms can be expected across the Northeast, but also some intense snow. Cities like Buffalo, NY could get in on more than a foot of heavy, wet snow.
Currently, the vort max (darkest red) is just east of Texas, which is where we will place the center of the storm. There is a vort lobe (elongated region of low pressures) running northeast into the west Ohio Valley areas, which is bringing down morning temperatures in those areas.
The storm system is expected to make its way into the East Coast and 'bomb out' into a very strong storm system. This 'bombing out' indicates that the Atlantic Ocean is providing abundant moisture to give to the storm system, in turn strengthening it. The storm system will hug the East Coast before shifting inland and likely into Canada. Bitter cold temperatures may follow in the wake of this storm system.
This is the probability for 8 inches of snow 2 days from today. As you can see, the highest potential is centered over far west New York, where I am expecting likely amounts at 8 inches, with isolated totals at a foot or potentially higher. This snow will be heavy. There's no getting around it. I advise anyone living in the area marked off above to prepare for downed trees and power lines, as leaves are returning to the trees, which will hold snow and thus weigh the tree down more than it would in winter.
Then there's the rain. People along the coast itself may receive well over 3 inches of rain in the next 5 days if this graphic verifies. Because the system will be so strong and because it will shift inland, expect Maine, Vermont, and states in that region to get the most precipitation out of this system. Flooding is definitely a concern, but this will help to bust the ongoing drought currently in the Northeast.
9 comments:
Is it just me, or is Henry Margusity at war with Joe Bastardi? Henry has been too cautious with this storm. Joe, maybe a little too extreme. My thoughts are more torwards Joe. Joe and Henry are 2 of the best.
I like the model agreement.... finally!!!!!!! -NAO equals East Coast snow. That is all it takes in winter or even in part of spring.
I would say the big winners in the snowfall department will be Buffalo New York and maybe the Mts.of Pennsylvania.The big cities will probably not see any snow from this.As for the power outages,they will be a nightmare where the heavy snow occurs.Please be patient if your power goes out.The power companies can only work so fast.Their first priority is safety.I work for a electric coop in Ohio and when outages occur,there is several steps taken to restore it.You have to patrol for the damaged lines or poles.Sometimes it may be a simple fix and other times it may not be!For example it may be caused by a fuse taken out by a tree limb.When other times it may be a major problem.For example TRANSMISSION lines may be down.This will take some time to fix.Substations may also be damaged or have no power due to TRANSMISSION lines that supply them.For example,a substation may be fine,but the transmission lines power the substation may be out.I could explain more but there is so many other causes that could occur.
This one certainly looks like it will fit the definition "heart attack snow". I think Joe Bastardi's fears of extreme damage caused by the weight of the snow are true. Margusity downplayed it quite a bit. I do understand caution though, but I think the NAO and Ao kind of determined my mind. Mike, I certainly agree. People may be in for a long period of time without power.
The ironic thing about this potential storm is that back in April.19-21 1901 eastern Ohio was buried under 3-4 feet of snow.I got this info.from about a book titled THUNDER IN THE HEARTLAND.ERN WX,this is the weather event i was going to post the other day.I really doubt this storm will produce 3-4 feet of snow.East of Ohio received mostly rain from this certain storm.Take care ERN WX!
Mike, thank you for telling me about that book. I will try to find it. Sounds neat. Take care!!!!!
Your quite welcome ERN WX! It's a book about storms that occured in Ohio's history over the past one hundred years.
Last night, received more rain in 2 hours than in 1 month. Light rain is currently falling. NWS says your area could get 1-3 inches of snow, Mike. Sounds good. have a good day!
Eastern WX: Yeah, Joe is pretty bold with his predictions (which haven't verified too well recently), and Henry has been more reserved, and for good reason- spreading false information is too easy in this day and age (as Henry had mentioned in a facebook post).
Mike: This is certainly a dangerous storm. Trees and power poles are in quite a danger.
Mike: 3-4 feet of snow is incredible!!
Eastern WX: Good thing your area is getting rain. Drought is never a good thing.
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