With tomorrow's heightened alert by the Storm Prediction Center, I have decided now is a good time to debut The Weather Centre's new storm alert system. Basically, if I see a risk of severe weather is on the horizon, after peering over the models, I will outline areas using the colors on the lefthand part of the screen. Keep in mind this key is only for the risk of storms, as in thunderstorms. When you get into the 'elevated' region is when severe storms become possible.
I have outlined northern Texas and much of Oklahoma under the 'High' risk of thunderstorms, seeing as instability has skyrocketed from the 0z GFS to the 12z GFS. In addition to as much as 4500 j/kg of instability with very little cap to stop storms from forming, shearing on the order of 30 to 50 knots is possible in these areas, leading me to believe that initial storms forming along the dry line may very well be supercells. Eventually, a more large hail risk should develop, and this will be the big risk. Instability as high as 4500 j/kg will promote very strong updrafts. These updrafts will keep pushing rain back up into the clouds to form larger and larger hailstones.
This is not a product of the SPC, NWS, or any government weather service. This is meant as a guidance product and should not be used in place of official government products.
Andrew
5 comments:
Andrew, great graphic. People in the southern plains better get ready for tomorrow. This will be Texas and Oklahoma's second round of storms in two days. Hope you had a good day and stay safe. Everyone else also stay safe especially tomorrow with the chance for SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LJ.
Lucas: Thanks for the feedback on the graphic. I appreciate it.
Andrew, I love stopping by your blog. You have the model page(121 models) which is very helpful because sometimes I don't have the time to find models(I thank you for that) summer/spring/winter/and severe outlooks which is very useful and helpful, and again the graphics are the best I've seen compared to any other blog or website. You are also willing to take time and do reaserch to make these very helpful and useful things for your viewers and myself to look at them. Keep up the very good work, stay safe, and have a good evening.
LJ.
I know I've said this a lot, but I mean it sincerely every time: It is what people like you say that makes me love to blog about the weather. I really sincerely appreciate what you said, Lucas. Thank you very much.
I also love to blog about weather, but since I'm only in middle I have a lot to learn. I've learned a lot from you. I have been into weather since I was 7 and I'm 13 now. I'm glad you make winter forecast because that's how I found your site. Thank you for sharing your knowledge on your blog because it helps me and other people understand weather.You shouldn't be thanking me, I should be thanking you for you work. So thank you very much for your excellent work. I hope to have has much knowledge as you when I get older. Thank you again.
LJ
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