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| Made May 14, 2012 |
Central America
For days, the FIM model has been projecting a tropical system to impact Cuba, Florida and possibly hitting the southern portions of the East Coast, although that has been in debate. What I have been seeing is what appears to be the monsoonal trough stationed in Central America at this time. Because convergence of moisture and winds are associated along the trough line, it is only a matter of time before something happens. Seeing as temperatures are above the necessary 80 degrees (F) in the red circle, and there will be converging winds and moisture in the area, showers and thunderstorms may very well propagate east into the Atlantic and fire up a tropical system, as is being projected now in the late May timeframe.
Gulf of Mexico
Temperatures in the area have surpassed 80 degrees (F) in the southern half of the region, an essential ingredient for tropical activity. Now, the monsoonal trough is not near the Gulf of Mexico, so there is not as much of a force to bring massive amounts of warm air into the atmosphere to make some thunderstorms. However, this could be the focal point for systems later on, and it will have to be watched.
Open Atlantic Waters
A ridge of high pressure appears to be extending into the region highlighted, and this would indeed discourage any storms from forming in the area, but also enhancing the potential for landfalling systems.
9 comments:
Sounds good./
Looks like my area may get a little severe wx tomorrow. SPC has me in see text. Marginal hail& wind possible. Cape 1000+j/kg, modest lapse rates, and shear 20+ knots will provide support for strong storms. Anonymous from Kansas, it looks like severe storms are possible in the long term. I know what boring weather is, I am suffering it too!!! Severe wx for you and a tropical system for me would make things interesting!!!!!!!!!!!!! Andrew, you do really well with the tropics!!! You surprised me with your tropical discussions. They are very good. I understand you not being able to post much today. 5 1/2 hours of sleep isn't much. Get some rest!!! Take care everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/
ERN WX, tropical systems were always fun to me. I was in Isabelle's rain band and TS Floyd. Isabelle had sustained 70 mph winds just in those bands. I was on the Jersey coast and Isabelle's winds kicked up sand. Painful stuff but fun. I hope this system at least brings rain as a weaker or moderate hurricane. You need the rain but not the worst case scenarios. When I go east, who knows if I'll reach it in time. Doubt it! Haha
ERN WX, I thought it would be a great when the opportunity comes to track a landfall tropical system using Radarscope, PYKL3, and/or even better GRL2. I can't imagine how useful dual-pol would be. If the time does come, I'll have PYKL3 ready. I wish I had Level 2 radar. Maybe someday since I don't expect L2 hitting mobile anytime soon and I don't need it now badly. I wish ya luck with more rain!
You were from NJ? That is where I have been for a good while!!! Isabelle was a good one, Floyd was fun, and Irene last year was enjoyable. Irene had the peak gust of all at 68 mph (I live more in the center). Rain is still needed, because long term we are still lacking. One tropical system would solve all problems though. Take care!!/
Yes born and raised. I lived near Point Pleasant for 15 and half years and lived in DE for awhile. I live in KS now to take advantage of the better economy. I would kill now for a Jersey Mike's sub, Italian hot dog, and Jersey pizza!
Foods certainly change when you go out west. Easterners just have to get used to it. If Andrew were to come out here, he would certainly find most of the food different. But the Midwest does have great bbq food!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Pizza in NJ I might not be able to lose for too long, though. ANd the subs too. Have a great day all!!/
The economy here remains bad. Most businesses continue to struggle. Sad./
There are alot of great cheap bbq out here. Alot of ethnic food too like Mexican, Thai, and Vietnamese. Can't beat that at all!
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