There is currently a swath of showers and storms in Missouri progressing towards the south-southeast. This movement should continue through the day before it reaches the Southern Plains and fires up a more intense risk of hail and damaging winds. The segment should begin to bow out as this movement occurs, according to model guidance off the SPC's WRF-NMM model.
I have highlighted southern Missouri, much of Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and western Louisiana in a 'moderate' chance of thunderstorms in general, which is when the risk of severe weather begins to creep higher. I did put in some spotty areas of 'elevated' in eastern Texas and southwest Arkansas, as some more storms look to fire in eastern Texas and progress into the 'elevated' area as they strengthen.
Andrew
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