There is a slight risk of severe weather over the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with two 'See Text' areas placed over the Southeast and South Central Plains.
Short range guidance indicates a cold front will be moving south, igniting showers and thunderstorms in the Mid Atlantic region, progressing southward as the day goes on. As this cold front moves southward, it will encounter roughly 5000 j/kg of instability based on NAM sounding. 12z NAM sounding forecast indicates the likelihood of a capping inversion over southern Pennsylvania into the severe weather region being watched tomorrow. Should this capping inversion be present, there is the potential that some of the storms will be unable to form. It will depend on the strength of the cold front to force air upwards, past the cap and into the 4000-5000 j/kg of instability across the area being monitored.
Andrew
1 comment:
SPC needs a watch S of the 2 they have up. RAP shows svr storms surviving for a good dist. Lots ofwind likely. Hail too. With sufficient shear (30+kts) and CAPE of 2000 j/kg+ storms will be able to push far S. Mdt risk poss. Sun.
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