Discussion
0z GFS model guidance indicates the presence of 3000-4000 j/kg of instability present on Sunday over the Mid Atlantic region. Considering this area resides close to the mountains, any air that is pushed up the mountain slopes could very well ignite a thunderstorm. Lifting oughtn't be an issue due to the presence of these mountains.
Concerning the tornado threat, there looks to be minimal rotation due to the mountainous terrain. With such high instability, I am confident that the main threats will be damaging winds and hail.
Andrew
1 comment:
The coastal plain of the mid Atlantic is a place where sprcls may develop. With 40kts of effective shear in place, sprcls with hail, wind, and a few tornadeos seems resonable. A mdt risk is poss. Too early to tell though.
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