A cold front is sagging south at the moment. Latest analysis indicates that there is a lot of instability available, but pockets of capping inversions spread out across the Great Lakes, which is likely going to suppress storms for a little while longer.
As for the Southeast, scattered severe storms have already developed and continue to meander across the region highlighted.
Now, as for the Northeast, the same cold front is sliding south, but poses a tornado threat, as well as an enhanced damaging wind threat. Analysis of instability and shearing indicates a pocket of enhanced shearing values in the enhanced risk area, with roughly 1000 j/kg of instability. Storms that manage to form in the area definitely will pose a tornado threat, but this could be confined to northern parts of the Northeast.
Andrew
4 comments:
Do you see any rain for NE Indiana? The drought is not good at all here. Farmers are just mowing down the corn fields. There are tall stalks, but no corn inside. Sad. And thanks as always.
Below average precip for the next 2 weeks is what i'm seeing. Same story here- lakes are really going down.
Svr looks poss for my area tomorrow. Any reports I'll give. GFS shows decent pcpn for parts of IN over 15 days.
Sig svr disc. Folks across the NE/MA, get ready for strong to svr tstms. Multicells will be the dominant tstm mode, but sprcls capable of producing 2in hail, 80mph w, and poss torn. Andrew, I know you have a post coming. CAPE is already aoa 4000 j/kg!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have activated. All other spotters should do the same. Mesoscale discussion states watch likely. 95%chc. Andrew, you are in the slgt risk too!!!!! Both of us the same day!!!! Amazing!!!!!!! SREF doing very well. NAM too. GFS is not bad either. Euro,....... not king but still good. The drought is caused by 1 transition to El Nino from La Nina, and 2 a -NAO. Why couldn't we have this last winter????? I got to get back to work........ I will have any reports later. Anyone else affected, please let me know, thank you.
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