The GFS is forecasting a positively tilted trough to push into the Upper Midwest on Thursday, creating mid level winds similar to what is being observed today in the Upper Midwest. The trough appears to be pushing on the ridge of high pressure that will be in place over the Southwest. This pushing will create friction between both atmospheric factors that will increase upper level wind speeds and increase the potential for some stronger storms in those areas.
There remains a difference between this forecast and today's event. In today's event, the trough is digging deeper and producing stronger winds. More importantly, the system is negatively tilted today. Negatively tilted troughs are more conducive for severe weather, which is being shown in the Midwest at the time of publishing.
That said, I believe that while there is a severe threat for the Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday, it likely will not be as significant as what we are seeing today.
Andrew
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