Satellite imagery shows a couple clusters of intense convection in western Africa at this time. As these disturbances move west, they will certainly pose a tropical development risk as they move offshore. I have not seen clusters this strong this season in the time I have been monitoring the East Atlantic / West Africa.
If I were to take a guess on the track of each of the two disturbances shown on the satellite image shown, I would say that the first cluster closest to the ocean will probably end up going out to sea, whether immediately after leaving Africa or just before entering the Caribbean.
I do believe that the second disturbance shown has a better threat to aim for the Caribbean, due to its dislocation to the south of the first disturbance.
Andrew
1 comment:
Hey Andrew, I haven't been on your site in a while but I wanted to go back on your website because I remembered that there was some good articles! I think the website has changed but it looks so much better! I see you have been seriously monitoring the tropics which I deeply appreciate. There has also been some chat as we surly are moving into the autumn/fall season and the unusually strong chain of lows dropping the temps by the Great Lakes/Northern Plains a good 10 - 15 Degrees F. Is there a chance that the Northeast (more specifically Southern New England) could see some of those cold fronts drop the temps a little? (It's been very hot and humid here - Dew Point reaching 80 degrees+) The cold front passing through now is suppose to deliver much drier air, but just returning night time lows to normal levels (about 60 F) It would be nice if I had a cool fall for the long-awaited weak/moderate snowy El Niño here on the East Coast! Thanks again, Andrew!
- RW
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