As the atmosphere continues its refusal to recognize the presence of an El Nino, and sudden cooling of waters below the El Nino erupts, it has come time to think about what would happen in a neutral ENSO winter, because as of now, hope for El Nino fades with every day the atmosphere does not recognize its presence.
These are years hand-picked by me to ensure as much accuracy as possible in these analogs. These 4 years contained both a neutral ENSO winter, as well as a negative PDO comparable to what that we are in now.
The analogs I have chosen have indicated that a cool winter would most likely arise from a neutral-ENSO/negative PDO situation, with anomalies of -1 to -3 being found across the Plains and Midwest regions. The East Coast contains neutral temperature anomalies, with maybe a bit of warmer than normal temperatures being found in upper New England. As for precipitation, a very wet scenario encompassed the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and East Coast, where over 3 inches above normal precipitation could be found. Some wetter conditions also prevailed in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Northern Plains.
One can find the La Nina side of this analogue choice in the temperatures, with a general cool down over the Northern half of the nation. A somewhat El Nino-y scenario is spotted in the South and East, with very wet conditions in those areas. Should we continue to see a strengthening of cooler than normal water anomalies below the El Nino, these 4 years may hold the key to winter. Of course, this will depend on how the 'fake' El Nino evolves over the next several weeks.
Andrew
These are years hand-picked by me to ensure as much accuracy as possible in these analogs. These 4 years contained both a neutral ENSO winter, as well as a negative PDO comparable to what that we are in now.
The analogs I have chosen have indicated that a cool winter would most likely arise from a neutral-ENSO/negative PDO situation, with anomalies of -1 to -3 being found across the Plains and Midwest regions. The East Coast contains neutral temperature anomalies, with maybe a bit of warmer than normal temperatures being found in upper New England. As for precipitation, a very wet scenario encompassed the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and East Coast, where over 3 inches above normal precipitation could be found. Some wetter conditions also prevailed in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Northern Plains.
One can find the La Nina side of this analogue choice in the temperatures, with a general cool down over the Northern half of the nation. A somewhat El Nino-y scenario is spotted in the South and East, with very wet conditions in those areas. Should we continue to see a strengthening of cooler than normal water anomalies below the El Nino, these 4 years may hold the key to winter. Of course, this will depend on how the 'fake' El Nino evolves over the next several weeks.
Andrew
20 comments:
So, in other words, your recently released winter forecast may have to be updated very shortly if I read what your new data is saying. I now understand why there is so much skepticism when it comes to anyone putting out a long range forecast so early.
If it is to be updated, I would update it in the Final winter forecast, which will be in late October. As of now, I stand by my forecast, but this is just what could happen if the El Nino keels over.
How realistic is it to anticipate the El Nino "keelingover". I have to say your articles are well presented but they send mixed messages to those who are looking for a forecast. In other words it sounds as if you are changing your thoughts about this winter even though you are still standing behind your forecast.
Well, there are some very strong signs that the atmosphere is not supporting the El Nino, which could then make the Nino just die off. However, we technically are in an El Nino, so a forecaster like myself would want to present both sides of the story in order to cover as much ground, and as many possibilities, as possible. I apologize if this is confusing- the whole ENSO pattern is confusing at the moment.
Thank you for the response. So if I am correct at this time it is simply conjecture that this MAY happen. What I don't understand is why the models are still forecasting the weak (1.0) region 3-4 based El Nino if the signals are not what they should be??? Doesn't the models take into consideration new data??
What regions of ther ecountry would receive the most snow if this were to come to life.I would say the el-nino is not going to happen.Also,the mid-atlantic & northeast will not get hammered as previously thought.Too earlt to tell.
ugh..now im all confused..like..if we dont get the expected forcast as it was..and it gets changed..will it be changed for MORE snow and cold or less snow and warmer like last year?..btw i live in the ohio valley area
49Hello Dillon.I also live in the Ohio Valley area.I'm thinking that it is our winter for the HEFTY snowstorms.Everyone is too much concerned and concentrated on the east coast and the mid-atlantic,and I almost forgot the southeast.Snow also fals in other areas of the country.It seems like every site forgets that snow does actually fall in other parts of the country besides the mentioned areas above.In my opinion,it is way,way,too early to tell what kind of winter we will be dealing with this coming winter.Things should become more clear around late november to early dec.Besides,winter does not begin until Fri.Dec.21,2012.
@ StormTracker 9 - While I do agree that it is a little early to start saying winter ain't gonna happen, the atmosphere will start to give clues as to what to expect. For example notice how much has changed from just a month or 2 ago. Cooler air is on the move from Canada, the big rainstorm we had a couple of days ago (no the norm for Sept.) And even though you are correct 12/21 is the astronomical winter, the pattern starts to show itself before then. I will those that live in the eastern half of the U.S. watch what happens in Oct. I live in Western Pa. and it has been my experience that cold, wet Oct. lead to nasty cold snowy winter.
Hello Anonymous above me.I agree with ahwt your saying about how the pattern has changed in the past few months.It has be come wetter and cooler.I live in Steubenville Ohio.This is is in extreme eastern Ohio.It will be interesting to see if Oct.will be wet and cool.
@ StormTracker9 - I am the Anonymous you are talking to, we are practically next door neighbors. I live just south of Pittsburgh. So about a 35 minute drive from you. I believe according to the models that fluctuate day to day we will both see atrend to wetter and colder weather as we enter into Oct.
Andrew, the analogues for the emergency case that I have show a COLD E half of the country. But a slgtly dry country too. Folks I see evidence that the East will get its fair show of snow even if have a neutral winter. The OH Val. too. The NAO is that decider.
Hello Anoymous from south of Pittsburgh.More rain on the way for Friday night through Sarurday morning.I'm noticing a definate change in the patttern.It wa 40 degrees this morning at my house.Parts of northern and eastern Ohio got down to 37 degrees.Quite chilly for this time of the year!
Hello Every one!I'm thinking the whole eastern half of the country has a decent chance of some sizeable snowstorms this coming winter.As we have noticed in the Ohio Valley recently,it has become wetter & cooler.It will be intersting to see how long this continues!
@ StormTracker9 - Yes, I saw that in my local forecast for rain as well. I live down in a valley of sorts and the temp. here are a few degrees colder in the a.m. than at PGH Intnt'l where they record the official temps. for this area. I believe the temp. in my backyard was at 36 degrees. Great weather to help the leaves change.
Hello Anonymous south of Pittsburgh.I usually watch WTOV channel 9 out of Steubenville.Which channel do you watch? Do you watch ant of the following,WTAE,KDKA,WPXI,OR WPGH?
@ StormTracker9 - I sometimes watch WTAE, KDKA & WPXI for local news and the weather. I usually get my weather info. from on-line sites like this but in the evening I will turn on one of the above to get any updates needed.
Hello Anonymous from south of Pittsburgh.I can pick most of Pittsburgh's stations up with my aerial tv antenna it's up in the air 40 feet on a tower.This brings in stations quite well.
so even if el nino does fall apart you are still forecasting above average precipitation for the southwest?
oh geez, put your pitchforks and torches away. anyone who expects a long range forcast to hold up perfectly is kidding yourself.
It's a mixture of science and entertainment for weather nerds. I feel that Andrew has at least backed up his claims with some decent analogs.
This year is still a huge question mark. It's all a part of the fun to solve the winter weather riddle. I do feel that this winter will be at least better than last year...just come along for the ride. You might learn something.
Just my two cents.
ERI Wx
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