Background Information
GLAAM: An indice used to read whether an El Nino is present. High GLAAM Values indicate an El Nino, while negative GLAAM values show a La Nina.
GWO: Global Wind oscillation also used to determine the ENSO Phase. Respective phases marked on top and bottom of chart.
The GLAAM index remains at an unfavorable position to find the presence of an El Nino at this time, and has been unfavorable for quite some time, as the chart above shows. Not one day in the past several months has the GLAAM reached above zero, which would indicate an El Nino.
Only adding to the puzzle, the low GLAAM is basically saying 'There is no El Nino', while we clearly know that there is. There is a big difference between there being an El Nino in the waters, and an El Nino in the atmosphere. We have the first option at the moment. As seen above in the GLAAM, there is no El Nino found in the atmosphere. However, we all know that there really is an El Nino in the Equatorial Pacific waters. The problem is, the atmosphere is not acknowledging it.
Andrew
9 comments:
This coming winter will be a really tricky winter to forecast.I'm thinking similiar conditions like last winter.I realy don't see the crushing snows that everyone is predicting for the northeast.Regardlessif there is an el-nino or not,everyone has a decent chance of heavy snowfall.El-nino doesn't control if when and where a snowstorm could develop!Everone is too hooked on this el-nino thing!Weather will be weather!
The term El Nino is coined from the Spanish term for "the child" refering to the birth of Christ. Typically El Ninos even strong ones do not make their prescence know in terms of practical weather until around Christmas. Help to understand where I do not understand this concept.
Are you talking to me anonymous above me?
No I believe I was addressing the author of the article. There are early indications that this year would not resemble last because there is mounting evidence there will be more blocking around the Arctice and Greenland. Last year would have been very different except for the lack of that blocking.
Anonymous #1: The ENSO is a global weather pattern that affects the global weather much more than you may think.
Anonymous #2: That is not always true. El Ninos can develop at any time and diminish at any time. If we were to see the El Nino now, we would see a much more charged southern jet stream.
Then help to understand when was the last time an El Nino was forecasted to develope but did not materialize???
Hello Andrew.So basically this coming winter will ba a difficult one to call down to the last minute? Do you see any indications of the southern jet getting active this winter bringing snowy conditions to the midwest and OV?
I believe the weather itself will give you indications of what the winter will bring as early as next month. It has been my experience the atmosphere will start to give clues as to what you may expect for winter. Long stretches of warm dry weather in Oct are not good indicators of a cold snowy winter coming. The same could be said of Dec. Dec. is month that I have heard other Mets say the winter storm track sets up and you can usually get a pretty good idea of what's coming by then.
Hello Anonymous above me.I agree with the storm track.Once it sets itself in a certain track,it usually stays that way through winter.Don't get me wrong,sometimes it takes another track.Timw will tell!
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