The string of below normal water temperatures is not extremely significant, and many of those little below-normal anomalies on this 'string' are only slightly below normal. However, the sudden appearance of these little bubbles of below normal sea surface temperatures are concerning to me in the sense that the Equatorial Pacific is sending many mixed messages.
There is a spot of very below normal waters below Nino regions 1+2, 3, and 3.4. However to the west, there is also an above normal body of water several dozen meters under the surface. It's as if the waters are trying to make all three ENSO phases happen at once- there is a neutral-ENSO-like water signature on the surface, a La Nina signature below the eastern waters, and an El Nino signature below the western waters of the ENSO monitoring area.
So what? Why should I care about how warm or cold water is?
If we see a persistance of this body of below normal waters, or even an expansion, the possibility of a developing La Nina must be accounted for. As previously mentioned in this post, lower level winds across the world are tuned more to a La Nina than an El Nino- something that must be closely watched as we enter the late fall-early winter weeks.
If I were to make a forecast on what we can expect for the ENSO in the winter, I am just not too sure of what I really would say. On one hand, we have a very solid body of La Nina-status waters just below the surface. However, on the other hand, we still have a fairly large expanse of El Nino-status waters on the western side of this image above. Yet, on the surface, it's just pretty stagnant- no defined areas of above or below normal waters.
These next few weeks will be a wait-and-see game as the Equatorial Pacific tangles with itself in trying to stabilize a proper ENSO solution for the winter.
Andrew
18 comments:
I just checked tha last SST model for the Pacific dated 10/11 a new one should be out today or tomorrow and I have noticed those small cold pockets but it looks nothing like a full fledged La Nina. So along with your confusion I have little faith in your final winter forecast based on these weekly articles that place doubt in my mind that your forecast has any hope of verifying.
I am sorry you have such little faith in my forecast. I see no reason to have such little faith, as I never indicated we are actually in a La Nina. This article simply stated we are seeing cooler waters in the area- I never indicated that has a basis to completely redo my winter forecast. I stand by it 100%.
I am sorry for the confusion then but that confusion has been because of your articles and I re-read that same article and you did imply that a La Nina was not out of the question. I have a lot of respect for you and your research I am just trying to understand these misleading articles that on the surface say something that contradicts your forecast.
You always have to be open to the possibilities Anonymous. He never implied anywhere in his articles that a La Nina would be present for the winter season. In fact, I still think even that might be more critical of the ENSO patterns. But that's my opinion. His articles are NOT leading to confusion.. They are just bringing out the fact, that something that wasn't clearly possible back in July, may actually be possible. If you aren't open minded with regards to forecasting, you will never make a good forecast. The articles have never been misleading, it's just that some people (and clearly yourself) are misinterpreting them. My final point is this: "SO WHAT?" If his articles imply La Nina.. The evidence points to a developing La Nina (even though some doesn't). He would do the same thing if the signals point to an El Nino, which at this time, they do not.
@ Joshua S. - If some including myself are misinterpreting Andrew's articles then they are not clearly written. And I stand by my observation that Andrew clearly stated that due to current observations La Nina is not out of the question. What does that statement mean to you. I am only responding to his latest article and the impact it seems to have on his winter forecast. Andrew also stated that if he had to use current data for his forecast he would not know what to say. Please explain that statement as well. I am not bashing Andrew I am simply stating the obvious when it comes to his forecast and what this latest information regarding the SST profile could mean.
I agree with Amdrew & Joshua.In my opinion the reason Andrew posts different topics to each scenerio that could happen is due to the fact things change on a daily basis in the atmosphere etc.He is trying to keep everyone informed on this site.As for the misleading articles,that is not true at all.The weather changes all the time.That is why he posts daily to what is happening.This is the only site that does this.In my opinion,he is doing an excellent job on his site.Whatever winter holds in store for us,we will have to deal with it.
Hey anonymous.Just get off of here.All your going to do is cause an uproar.Go to another site.
@ Mike P. I completely disagree with that statement that this is the only site that does that. There are many different sites that not only give updates but also explian what may be causing the changes and what impacts they have on the forecast. If Andrew is postinng different topics that may contradict his forecast then he should explain what those chgaes could mean to his winter forecast without leaving it up to the reader to figure out.
@ if you can't take a descenting opinion then you should be the one to leave.
Hey anonymous.Okay,you disagree with me.That is fine.If you don't care for this site,then leave!I happen to like it!
@mike who said I didnt like the site I can have an pinion that doesn't agree with yours this is still America. I not a mindless zombie that just accepts what is posted
I'm not going to argue with someone that I don't even know.Another thing,I never said you were a mindless zombie.
@ mike I don't argue with people I don't know either and that wasn't my intention by giving my opinion but I was told twice to leave a free site because my opinion didn't match their! That was what I meant by mindless zombie.
Hello anonymous.Understood.Let's just forget the whole thing.
Hey, sorry to bother you about this. But recently I have seen blogs (mine and yours included) have their views reset - do you know why this is?
Also, just hoping it snows a lot in Ohio Valley, rained a lot last year :)
Different Anonymous!
Awhile back in this blog, I too saw pockets of SE and E cold waters drifting off Chilean coast. I too wondered about that. The model was a looping ocean temp model. I too made a comment about that.
To the other Anonymous, Andrew's forecasts are not meant to be taken for granted. Even he admits it. We accept different opinions and don't force ours on others. The best forecasters of all are ourselves. We don't intend to hurt and I'm sure you didn't either. Maybe the "...lost faith..." segment was just another one of those stupid things we say.
Have a good one!
@ Andrew - I apologize if I offended you with my posts yesterday. I wanted to be clear about the article and you have done a great job clearing that confusion up. I will always be an admirer of yours even though I may not agree 100% all the time. Again thank you for your patience.
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