I live in Cleveland, OH. Regarding the current pattern setting up in your long range lookout, if this pattern persists, what temperature departures (in F) do you think such a pattern would lead to for November and the winter months?
My second question (previous was first) - +PNA/-NAO is great for the East, but you told me sustaining that is unlikely. Is -PNA/+ or neutral NAO (not good for East) thus likely to be a sustained pattern in your view, or do you think these indices will be moving back and forth overall throughout the season, not locking into any specific configuration for more than a few weeks, and thus giving both the West and East turns to get the brunt of the cold at some point this season?
Third question - What do you think is the chance that the currently setting up pattern persists the whole winter (as a percent, preferably), and there is no period where the primary area of cold shifts into the East?
Fourth and last question to start with - when the MJO is in the circle of death, what implications, if any, does the MJO have on US temperatures? For all these questions, I'd appreciate if you could respond when you have the chance, taking turns fairly.
Might as well ask for a personal forecast. Snowfall and temperature departure you expect from normal by month from November through February, in Cleveland
I own the largest commercial snow removal company in Minnesota. I have followed you from the start and can't thank you enough. Do you still agree with your post a few weeks ago on Oct 16th calling for "core of snow" through our area?
How's it been going Andrew? Do you see the Ohio area particulary eastern and northern Ohio getting into a snowy pattern come January on? I'm considering the current pattern we have been in it might continue through the winter off and on.Just your best guess will do.
To add to mike above, do you see the pattern most likely becoming favorable for cold/east at times in the winter, even if it is more favorable for the west at other times (i.e. an oscillating pattern)?
(To KakHome: All of your questions have been responded to on the Facebook post.)
Anonymous: Yes.
Anonymous #2: Some light snow is possible.
Chuck: Glad you like the site- I aim to please! My best guess would be a slightly wetter than normal winter. Temperatures get a little tricky, especially with an undefined ENSO state.
Steve: Your company should benefit from the winter- if current trends hold, then Minnesota would get quite a few events of snowfall.
Mike: If the indications I have gathered from October are correct, Ohio would be cold and stormy, especially in the latter half of the winter.
KakHome: Yes- the storminess and cold will change from time to time, but should end up centered in the East.
Anonymous #3: Nashville will likely get some snow at one time or another.
Anonymous #4: The East US ridge will return, but not for an extended time period.
Aaron: It is possible, but at the moment not extremely likely. The next few model runs should clarify the situation better.
I currently reside in Flagstaff, AZ and I was curious to know your thoughts on the winter outlook in the mountains of Northern Arizona (an overlooked area in most winter forecasts). I recently read a NWS outlook for our area predicting a weak-el nino which they explained would give "great variability" to our snow forecast. Do you believe we will receive a larger snowfall with cooler temps then we did last year (a weak la nina year which only brought 90 inches to town and around 250 inches to mountains ~10,000 ft)?
20 comments:
I live in Cleveland, OH. Regarding the current pattern setting up in your long range lookout, if this pattern persists, what temperature departures (in F) do you think such a pattern would lead to for November and the winter months?
Will you give a personal winter forecast for Fort Smith , AR ?
Could the storm next weekend hit Iowa as a Snowstorm?
My second question (previous was first) - +PNA/-NAO is great for the East, but you told me sustaining that is unlikely. Is -PNA/+ or neutral NAO (not good for East) thus likely to be a sustained pattern in your view, or do you think these indices will be moving back and forth overall throughout the season, not locking into any specific configuration for more than a few weeks, and thus giving both the West and East turns to get the brunt of the cold at some point this season?
Third question - What do you think is the chance that the currently setting up pattern persists the whole winter (as a percent, preferably), and there is no period where the primary area of cold shifts into the East?
Fourth and last question to start with - when the MJO is in the circle of death, what implications, if any, does the MJO have on US temperatures? For all these questions, I'd appreciate if you could respond when you have the chance, taking turns fairly.
Might as well ask for a personal forecast. Snowfall and temperature departure you expect from normal by month from November through February, in Cleveland
Andrew, what are you expecting for the Ark-La-tex region of the southern plains, for this winter?
Thanks bro, love your site!
Chuck
I own the largest commercial snow removal company in Minnesota. I have followed you from the start and can't thank you enough. Do you still agree with your post a few weeks ago on Oct 16th calling for "core of snow" through our area?
Thank you, Steve
How's it been going Andrew? Do you see the Ohio area particulary eastern and northern Ohio getting into a snowy pattern come January on? I'm considering the current pattern we have been in it might continue through the winter off and on.Just your best guess will do.
To add to mike above, do you see the pattern most likely becoming favorable for cold/east at times in the winter, even if it is more favorable for the west at other times (i.e. an oscillating pattern)?
will nashville tennessee get snow this winter
will this be the only time there is a eastern us ridge
Will West Virginia get snow from this nor'easter
(To KakHome: All of your questions have been responded to on the Facebook post.)
Anonymous: Yes.
Anonymous #2: Some light snow is possible.
Chuck: Glad you like the site- I aim to please! My best guess would be a slightly wetter than normal winter. Temperatures get a little tricky, especially with an undefined ENSO state.
Steve: Your company should benefit from the winter- if current trends hold, then Minnesota would get quite a few events of snowfall.
Mike: If the indications I have gathered from October are correct, Ohio would be cold and stormy, especially in the latter half of the winter.
KakHome: Yes- the storminess and cold will change from time to time, but should end up centered in the East.
Anonymous #3: Nashville will likely get some snow at one time or another.
Anonymous #4: The East US ridge will return, but not for an extended time period.
Aaron: It is possible, but at the moment not extremely likely. The next few model runs should clarify the situation better.
What do you think NJ will be like this winter?
Andrew, Are You Expecting a Bad Winter In Central Indiana This Winter?
Andrew while everyone else is asking, what about Northern Illinois for winterlike conditions?
Like about 30 miles due South of Lake Geneva, Wisconsin.
Hey,
I currently reside in Flagstaff, AZ and I was curious to know your thoughts on the winter outlook in the mountains of Northern Arizona (an overlooked area in most winter forecasts). I recently read a NWS outlook for our area predicting a weak-el nino which they explained would give "great variability" to our snow forecast. Do you believe we will receive a larger snowfall with cooler temps then we did last year (a weak la nina year which only brought 90 inches to town and around 250 inches to mountains ~10,000 ft)?
Andrew, I really appreciate this siteand yor knowledge. Where are you from?
Bill
Mokena, IL
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