ENSO Update: New Forecast Models Show Neutral ENSO Winter

The latest update from the IRI/CPC (International Research Institute/Climate Prediction Center) shows that the wide array of models used in forecasting ENSO phases is looking neutral for this winter.

The individual models are combined into the ensemble mean, shown as a yellow line on the chart. This yellow line keeps the ENSO state where it is at the moment with fluctuations here and there. This prospect isn't all that surprising, seeing as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has not been showing any love to the ENSO regions recently that would otherwise bump up the prospects for an El Nino.

You're probably looking at all those models and wondering 'Which one is the best?' Well, the IRI has an archive of compiled forecasts of each model and observed ENSO conditions superimposed. I went through each model and found the most accurate one of the bunch, shown below:

This model is called the ESSIC model. Statistical models are shown in yellow and dynamical models in green. Don't worry, those fancy terms don't need to be defined at the moment. The ESSIC's previous forecasts are in red, and observed conditions are superimposed in black. It appears that the ESSIC model did very well in forecasting the predicted ENSO states, whereas other models had ridiculous warm or cold bias' that rendered their forecasts completely useless.

In summary, the ENSO conditions should stay in neutral for this winter. This means an increased chance for a cool Plains, a stormy south Plains and wet Southeast-East Coast.

Andrew